Which films can win Oscar 2024?

On the evening of Sunday, March 10 (Monday night Moscow time), the Oscars will be presented in Los Angeles. Since the pandemic, the awards seasons that usually end with the Oscars have become a month and a half longer, which is tiring for filmmakers participating in the race, but gives viewers the opportunity to watch all the nominated films and evaluate their chances. Shares his forecasts Julia Shagelman.

This year is the first year that Oscar contenders are in the main category. “Best movie” must meet the inclusion criteria introduced by the Academy in 2020. As expected, conservatives’ fears that they would stifle creativity and have a major impact on the diversity of submissions did not materialize. Looking at the list of nominees, it would be difficult to find ten differences from similar lists from previous years. All the genres and categories beloved by academics are present here: films dedicated to important historical events (the invention of the atomic bomb, the Holocaust, the extermination of the Osage Indians in the 1920s), biographical films, stories about simple human feelings, box office champions and a couple of non-standard art films. films made by directors beloved by critics who have a reputation for being “highbrow.”

Today there are few doubts about which picture will be declared the best on March 10th. Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer”, leading in the number of nominations (he has thirteen), received all the major awards of the season: Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTA and SAG awards. , director (DGA) and producer (PGA). The last time the cards aligned in such a happy way was in 2013 with Ben Affleck’s “Operation Argo,” and before that in 2009 with Danny Boyle and Loveleen Tandan’s “Slumdog Millionaire.” Both films received the main Oscar and several more in addition (two for Argo and seven for Millionaire), so in the case of Oppenheimer, the intrigue remains only in the question of how many statuettes it will take away.

It can be argued that one of them will be a prize for best director for Christopher Nolan, who has already been noted by colleagues from the Director’s Guild and compatriots from the British Film Academy. In addition, this year he has won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award and many other less significant awards. The idiosyncratic style of one of the most influential and popular directors today finally coincided with a relevant and significant topic, because the threat of nuclear war began to feel very real again, and was also packaged by him in a sufficiently traditional form for academics to join the ranks of his admirers.

Two more Oscars are practically guaranteed for Oppenheimer in the nominations “Best Actor” And “Best Supporting Actor”, where the front-runners were Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr., who respectively played the father of the atomic bomb and the chairman of the US Atomic Energy Commission, Lewis Strauss, who puts a spoke in his wheels. This is Murphy’s first leading role in a film of this magnitude after numerous independent films and strong supporting performances. His closest competitor is Paul Giamatti (“The Leftovers”), with whom, thanks to the genre division into comedy and drama, they cut the Globe, but the SAG and BAFTA awards give the Irish actor an advantage. Downey, on the other hand, collected all the indicator prizes, and also embodies one of Hollywood’s beloved stories of career revival from the ashes – this is what secured Oscars for Brendan Fraser and Ke Huy Quan last year.

In the female acting categories, the situation is a little more interesting. If Davan Joy Randolph, nominated for her supporting role in The Leftovers, may already be preparing a place on the Oscar shelf next to the Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA Awards and so on, then in the category “Best Actress” two favorites. Both Lily Gladstone, who played a quiet role in terms of external effects, but filled with inner strength in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and Emma Stone, who gave a brighter performance based on physical transformation in “The Poor and Unfortunate,” each have a Golden Globe. ” The former also has a SAG award to her name, and the latter a BAFTA, and their chances of pleasing the academics are almost equal. Perhaps the political factor will be decisive – if Lily Gladstone wins, she will become the first indigenous American to receive an Oscar.

Surprises are also possible in the screenplay categories, especially since this year the award of the corresponding guild was postponed due to a strike and will be awarded after the Oscars, so there is no clearest indicator here. A number of experts believe that the Barbie award in the category “Best Adapted Screenplay”, where Academy rules sent her, will be a consolation prize for Greta Gerwig, who was not nominated for directing. But the main favorite here is still considered to be Cord Jefferson and his “American Fiction” on the topical, but presented with humor, topic of racial prejudice. At the same time, neither “Oppenheimer” nor “The Poor Miserables” can be discounted yet.

Concerning original script, then Justine Trieu and Arthur Harari with their “Anatomy of a Fall” gained unexpected weight after winning the Globe and BAFTA. They can count on the sympathy of the international part of the Film Academy, and besides, the precedent for awarding a script not in English happened quite recently, when Bong Chun-ho’s “Parasite” received an Oscar in this category. However, the scales may also tip towards Alexander Payne’s The Leftovers, since academics are also people who can love a comforting Christmas movie. We will know in three days which story they will choose in the end.