What is the reason for the fall of the ruble?
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The dollar and euro exchange rates have risen sharply. Since the start of trading on the Moscow Exchange, the American currency has risen in price by more than 70 kopecks and exceeded 92 rubles. The euro exchange rate added 1 ruble. and is now approaching 99 rubles. At the same time, economists interviewed by Kommersant FM predict that at the upcoming meeting on February 16, the Central Bank will leave the key rate at the existing level. Now it is 16%.
What could be the reason for the weakening of the ruble? Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Igor Nikolaev, admits that this is a delayed reaction to the Ministry of Finance’s decision to buy foreign currency again within the framework of the budget rule: “Taking into account the volatility in the foreign exchange market, which we have been observing for a long period, this is a noticeable jump, but to say that this is what Something out of the ordinary, of course, is impossible.
In my opinion, this is still a delayed effect of the decision that was announced a few days ago that the Ministry of Finance will again gradually buy foreign currencies. Since it was announced that small volumes would be purchased, a strong jump cannot be expected. The Ministry of Finance does not want the ruble to weaken too much – this would cause a jump in inflation, and there is not much time left before the presidential elections.
There are also traditional factors: oil has weakened a little, but the price of more than $80 per barrel is not such a bad rate; sanctions are also one of the factors. We know that problems have arisen with the availability of currency in correspondent accounts of Russian banks in the same Turkish lira and Chinese yuan. There was a very significant reduction, but this problem seems to be being solved.”
Economist Sergei Khestanov does not rule out that the sharp weakening of the ruble may be associated with reports in Western media. American publications, citing intelligence, wrote that Russia could deploy nuclear weapons in space. But the Central Bank’s policy regarding the key rate, on the contrary, should now strengthen the national currency, the expert believes:
“All other things being equal, a fairly high key rate, which obviously exceeds inflation, supports the exchange rate of the national currency. Currently, the consensus of analysts regarding the Central Bank’s decision suggests that, most likely, no significant changes to the key rate will be adopted. Accordingly, the upcoming decision is unlikely to cause a movement in the national currency exchange rate.
Typically, a sharp movement in the exchange rate against the backdrop of a relatively stable macroeconomy is associated with some kind of political statements. It is possible that this weakening of the ruble is directly or indirectly related to the rather harsh statements of some Western news agencies. Subsequently, there is often a return to the level from which the movement occurred, provided that the statements remain so.
For a real change in cash flows, it is necessary to take some effective sanctions measures, which in itself is quite difficult.”
If analysts’ forecast turns out to be correct, the Central Bank will leave the rate unchanged in February for the first time in seven months. Previously, the regulator tightened policy five times in a row, including at one unscheduled meeting. So far, experts call the results of these decisions intermediate: inflation remains elevated, and lending in some segments continues to grow.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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