Warehouses do not have enough tenants

The uncertainty factor, which caused a 43% drop in warehouse property absorption in 2022, will continue to affect the market. This year, the volume of leased and sold space may decrease by another 5-10%. But if last year the main decline occurred in the regions, now pent-up demand can be realized here due to the redistribution of logistics.

The total volume of transactions with high-quality warehouse space in Russia in 2023 may be reduced by 8–9%, to 2.4 million sq. m. m, year on year, predicts NF Group. IBC Real Estate expects that 2.2 million sq. m. will be absorbed in Russia this year. m of such real estate, which is 5-10% lower than last year. Ricci expects demand in the Moscow region to remain approximately at the level of 2022, estimating the volume of transactions here at 1.3-1.5 million square meters. m.

Last year turned into a sharp drop in demand for warehouse real estate. The volume of absorption of such assets in Russia, according to NF Group estimates, decreased by 43%. The decline was pronounced in the regional markets, where the volume of transactions decreased by more than two times, to 630 thousand square meters. m. In Moscow, the volume of transactions decreased by 38.2%, to 2.71 million square meters. m. Activity in the capital is partly due to the withdrawal from the market of foreign companies that released space, says NF Group partner Konstantin Fomichenko. But now the main optimization processes have already passed, and the volume of the speculative proposal under construction is limited, says Viktor Afanasenko, regional director of the industrial real estate department at Nikoliers.

Mr. Fomichenko links the decline in demand for warehouses in the regions with the high demand for such real estate in 2021 and with the current general uncertainty. “Some companies have suspended plans for a possible expansion, although they have retained interest in it,” he says. The St. Petersburg market, according to IBC Real Estate analysts, is in a higher risk zone due to the redistribution of logistics flows. The limited demand for regional warehouses also led to a slowdown in the growth of rental rates. The average value at the end of 2022 increased by 9%, to 5.35 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m per year, calculated in the NF Group. In 2021, for comparison, rental rates grew by 32%.

This year, Konstantin Fomichenko expects an increase in the share of regional transactions, guided by the growing interest of potential tenants in them. Head of research and analytics at IBC Real Estate Ekaterina Nogay says that demand in the regions is characterized by great volatility, but does not exclude that such markets will be supported by the reorientation of logistics flows. She considers Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Rostov-on-Don, Samara and Kazan to be promising from the point of view of the absorption of warehouse real estate. Viktor Afanasenko agrees with this, pointing out the congestion of the eastern corridor Russia-China.

So far, the main demand for warehouse space in the regions is formed by retail chains. They accounted for 61% of regional deals in 2022, according to NF Group. According to Nikoliers, retail operators formed 69% of lease and purchase transactions of warehouses in the regions at the end of the year, while online retail accounted for only 14%. In Moscow, the situation is reversed – here the e-commerce sector accounted for 44% of transactions in 2022.

Although the general director of “Infoline-Analytics” Mikhail Burmistrov does not see the deferred demand of retail operators for regional warehouses. In his opinion, the largest chains continue to search for new areas, but rather maintain rather than increase their activity. There is also demand from online operators, but other players are not yet planning active regional expansion, says Mr. Burmistrov. But he does not rule out that logisticians and distributors will have an additional need for regional areas. Radius Group Leasing Director Alexandra Shakola believes that e-commerce market participants remain the main driver of demand for warehouses, as well as companies from the transport, logistics and manufacturing industries.

Alexandra Mertsalova