VTB predicts a 1.5-fold increase in retail lending by the end of 2023
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Sales of retail loans in Russia will grow by 57% by the end of 2023 and exceed 16 trillion rubles. excluding POS lending (loans issued at retail outlets). In the fourth quarter, the personal lending market will slow down. VTB’s forecast was announced by Deputy President and Chairman of the Board Georgy Gorshkov at the “Russia Calling!” forum.
The bank expects that in the fourth quarter, the issuance of loans to individuals will amount to 4.1 trillion rubles: this is 16% less than in the third quarter of 2023, but 21% more than in the fourth quarter of 2022. “The increase in the key rate and the restrictions introduced by the Bank of Russia have already affected sales at the end of the year, anticipating the “winter” period of retail lending. Next year, the market expects stagnation, since the key rate will be close to the current level for most of the year,” said Mr. Gorshkov. He hopes that the regulator will fulfill the necessary inflation targets and help banks “return to the growth phase of the credit market and the development of refinancing programs.”
According to VTB estimates, based on data from Frank RG, over 11 months, Russians issued loans worth 14.8 trillion rubles. This is 65% more than in the same period in 2022. During this period, VTB issued retail loans worth 2.5 trillion rubles – the figure increased 1.6 times year on year.
The drivers of growth in 2023 were mortgages and car loans, the sales volume of which could reach RUB 9.3 trillion. Another 6.8 trillion rubles. at the end of the year will be issued in cash.
The mortgage market is projected to grow 1.5 times – about 7.6 trillion rubles. In the fourth quarter, demand decreased by 10% compared to the previous four months. VTB expects that in 2024 the level of mortgage sales will reach 5.2 trillion rubles if the state program is completed. Car lending in 2023 may more than double, to 1.6 trillion rubles. VTB expects continued growth in 2024.
About the market reaction to tightening monetary policy – in the material “Kommersant” “And my shoulder got itchy”.
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