Turkmen gas froze in pipes

Uzbekistan in the middle of winter faced massive power and gas outages, the reason being a shortage of gas from neighboring Turkmenistan due to problems at the Galkynysh field. It is still difficult to estimate how long the repair work at the field will take. But if the timing is long, the problem could also affect exports to China, analysts believe.

In Uzbekistan, against the background of abnormal frosts and the suspension of gas supplies from Turkmenistan, there are massive power outages, as well as interruptions in heat supply and gas supply to consumers. According to the press service of the Ministry of Energy of Uzbekistan, the emergency situation that arose on January 12 at the natural gas fields in Turkmenistan due to abnormal cold, led to a complete halt in the import of Turkmen gas and a reduction in the import of electricity from Turkmenistan by 20%. At the beginning of 2023, Uzbekistan planned to import from Turkmenistan 35 million cubic meters of gas per day and up to 20–21 million kWh per day of electricity.

Turkmengaz allegedly stopped gas exports to Uzbekistan due to the formation of hydrate in the infield pipelines of the Galkynysh field, the largest in the country, which is the base for the Central Asia-China gas pipeline (CAC), in 2022, production on it exceeded 35 billion cubic meters.

From January 10 on the territory of Uzbekistan, the temperature drops to an average of minus 19–20 ° C at night, and to minus 17 ° C during the day, which led to an increase in electricity and gas consumption. Against the backdrop of frosts, gas supplies to a number of industrial enterprises were reduced, gas filling stations were temporarily closed.

As a result, the Uzbek authorities imposed restrictions on the supply of electricity for one and a half to two hours in a number of regions of the country, including Tashkent. In addition, due to low gas pressure in the pipes, some households were left without gas.

The Ministry of Defense of Uzbekistan has set up field kitchens for residents of Tashkent who have difficulty preparing hot meals.

Gas production in Uzbekistan in 2021 amounted to about 50.9 billion cubic meters, consumption for the same period is estimated at 46.4 billion cubic meters, follows from BP data. Production in the country is declining every year; in winter, at peak loads, the gas deficit in the republic can reach 20 million cubic meters per day. At the same time, Uzbekistan exports about 4 billion cubic meters of gas to China annually, now exports from the country have been completely stopped. Turkmenistan, in turn, produced 79.3 billion cubic meters in 2021, a little less than half of these volumes the country exports to China, although the throughput capacity of the three lines of the CAC gas pipeline reaches 80 billion cubic meters per year. Russia in autumn 2022 suggested Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to organize the supply of Russian gas to these countries with the prospect of further exports to China, but so far the negotiations are going without a concrete result.

At the moment, it is not clear how significant the problems faced by Turkmengaz are, in particular, how long it will take to eliminate hydrate plugs in field gas pipelines at the Galkynysh field, said Sergey Kondratiev from the Institute of Energy and Finance. According to him, in a normal situation, the elimination of such plugs (local heating of the gas pipeline, the introduction of inhibitors) may take several days.

“If the problem is widespread, we can expect a decrease in gas supplies through the CAC system, which, in turn, may force China to significantly increase LNG imports,” the analyst suggests.

In winter, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan reduce supplies through the CAC, directing gas to the needs of the domestic market, he recalls. Turkmenistan accounts for 17-18% of all gas imports to China.

Tatyana Dyatel