Trucks went on friendly routes – Newspaper Kommersant No. 66 (7511) dated 04/17/2023

According to the results of the first quarter, road carriers are seeing a serious increase in imports from neighboring friendly countries against the backdrop of a decrease in exports, an increase in domestic traffic and some increase in rates. The main directions were Kazakhstan, from which in a number of categories the volume of imports increased 13 times, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Belarus and China. Thus, market participants note that the “sensible loss” of road transport flows in communication with the EU countries has already been partially or completely, depending on the direction, compensated by the freight turnover with the CIS countries and friendly countries.

Cargo transportation within Russia in the first quarter grew by 35% yoy, according to the calculations of the ATI.SU freight exchange. At the same time, the demand for the delivery of goods from other countries grew even faster, by 40%. Among the most popular destinations are Kazakhstan (triple growth), Kyrgyzstan (twice). Significant increases were also shown by Armenia (by 79%), Belarus (by 65%), Turkey (by 63%) and Uzbekistan (by 59%). “In terms of prospects, the most important is the almost two-fold, by 91%, growth in demand for the delivery of goods from China,” emphasizes ATI.SU. “With the release of China from quarantine restrictions, growth may accelerate, despite the fact that the delivery of goods from China to the European part of the Russian Federation by road is traditionally considered not very profitable compared to railways.

Export traffic, according to ATI.SU estimates, fell, although not too significantly, by 8%: the loss of European destinations was compensated by friendly countries, especially Turkey (growth by 213%). The number of applications for transportation from Russia to Georgia (by 33%), Kyrgyzstan (by 41%), Kazakhstan (by 45%), Armenia (by 59%) and Uzbekistan (by 68%) also increased. “In the absence of new shocks, growth on domestic routes will continue in the near future,” says Svyatoslav Vilde, founder of ATI.SU. “In international transportation, development will continue at the expense of friendly countries.” At the same time, he warns, much will depend on the effectiveness of new sanctions packages: with the introduction of severe restrictions, the growth of traffic on certain routes may slow down or even stop.

Pony Express agrees with the assessments. “According to our statistics, the flow from Turkey has increased by about seven times, the turnover with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan has doubled,” says the head of the company, Marya Dei. “Exports have dipped a little.”

As a result, the overall picture for cross-border transportation, Ms. Day believes, “looks positive due to increased demand in the B2B segment.”

DPD also agrees with market estimates and observes similar dynamics: an increase in demand for transportation from China, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia.

“Our statistics on a number of points are similar to ATI.SU estimates,” says Alexander Shilinchuk, deputy general director for road transportation at Trasco. As for exports from Russia to the EU, there is a significant reduction in traffic volumes, on average by more than 60%. At the same time, the countries of the Middle East and Asia show a very significant increase. Thus, the volume of transportation to Turkey increased by 380% in the first quarter of the year, and to Kazakhstan – by 143%.

Import shipments, adds Mr. Shilinchuk, show a reduction of 24% on average, which again illustrates the overall decline in trade with European countries. “At the same time, in terms of imports in a number of other areas, there is literally a quantum leap: from Turkey, for example, we began to carry 650% more cargo in the first quarter, from Belarus – 243% more, from Uzbekistan – 50%, and from Kazakhstan — by a record 1200%!” he clarifies.

FM Logistic notes a two-fold increase in import flow from Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and China (in rail and road traffic), “we also see an increase in export flow to friendly countries – Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Mongolia,” says the head of the procurement department for international transportation FM Logistic in Russia Evgeny Dyatlov.

Cargo transportation from friendly countries partly compensate for the fall in the European direction, Ivan Golovko, head of international road transportation at Noytech Supply Chain Solutions, agrees, noting that Turkey “has become a notable hub for Russian non-commodity exports.”

In terms of deliveries, Kazakhstan is the leader “due to its geographical location and the presence of a long land border with the Russian Federation,” adds Maria Martynova, Deputy Executive Director of Courier Service Express. “But the leader may change already in the second quarter due to the introduction of new rules for the clearance of goods exported from Kazakhstan to the Russian Federation from April 1 (see Kommersant of March 28), she adds. “For now, the market is adapting to changes.”

Sanjar Ashuraliev, CEO of the transport company Delko, however, sees no “strong deviations” compared to the first quarter of 2022. “The demand for delivery from friendly countries has been growing since last year, while at the same time there was a redistribution of goods flows within the country. At the same time, rates for transportation in January-March increased by 11% yoy and, we believe, will continue to grow due to higher prices for components,” he says. According to ATI.SU, prices for trucking increased by an average of 6% over the first quarter.

Natalya Skorlygina