Tribute to all lovers – Newspaper Kommersant No. 27 (7472) of 02/14/2023
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The expectations of market participants regarding the consumer activity of Russians on Valentine’s Day turned out to be contradictory. Analysts are talking about a decrease in the number of purchases by Russians compared to last year. Restaurateurs give cautious forecasts, believing that the number of visitors to their establishments will be, at best, at last year’s level. At the same time, retailers note an increase in demand for goods popular on February 14: sweets, fruits and soft toys.
Due to the ongoing trend towards increased consumer savings since the spring of 2022, the number of purchases on Valentine’s Day will decrease, says Alexander Shokurov, CEO of Kokos Group.
According to him, the average bill for the purchase of household appliances and electronics will decrease by 10-15% year-on-year, household goods – by 5-10%, and for jewelry, on the contrary, will grow by 5-10%.
Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO of Infoline-Analytics, notes that the increased tension on the eve of the anniversary of the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine “does not encourage an increase in consumption among the majority of Russians,” despite the approaching gender holidays.
Director General of the Guild of Jewelers of Russia Eduard Utkin believes that holiday sales of middle-priced jewelry will not increase due to rising prices. Due to the abolition of special tax regimes for small and medium-sized businesses from the beginning of 2023, jewelers had to increase product prices by about 20-30%, Mr. Utkin notes.
Consumers are trying to save money in order to buy jewelry on March 8, Vyacheslav Kornilov, director of the Sokolov chain, confirms. According to him, the growth of traffic and demand before Valentine’s Day is 8-12%, while before the Eighth of March – one and a half to two times.
In turn, large grocery retailers, on the eve of February 14, note an increase in demand for certain types of products.
So, in Vkusville, Magnit and Metro, X5 Group (Pyaterochka, Perekrestok, Chizhik) they talk about the growing interest of customers in chocolate sets, desserts, fruits, berries and sparkling wines. Magnit calculated that sales of fresh berries in physical terms grew by almost 50% year-on-year, wines – by 20%, chocolate – by 18.5%.
According to M.Video—Eldorado, consumer interest on the eve of the holiday remained at the level of the previous year. Smartphones, beauty and health products, kitchen appliances, etc. are in the greatest demand for Valentine’s Day, they say on the network.
In Letual, compared to last year, more often people buy products in the sexual wellness category, flowers and appliances, including hair dryers, hair tongs and darsonval for the face.
Alexey Vanchugov, managing partner of Vanchugov & Partners, draws attention to the fact that by February 14, Russians traditionally choose inexpensive gifts, for the purchase of which 20-30% of buyers have switched to marketplaces. In particular, Ozon is talking about an increase in sales before February 14 on average 2.5 times a year. Wildberries, Yandex Market, Ozon note that soft toys and chocolate are in demand, in a higher price category – jewelry.
Restaurateurs are also talking about increased interest in table reservations ahead of the holiday.
However, the co-owner of Tigrus (Osteria Mario, “Shvili”) Henrik Winter notes that the activity of visitors is similar to last year. Director of the brand of Italian restaurants “IL Patio” Ella Nistratova expects the average check on Valentine’s Day to be at the weekend level, although the holiday falls on a weekday.
In turn, Mr. Vanchugov notes the growth in traffic in shopping centers, arguing that it is comparable to the pre-crisis levels of 2019. In some objects, the indicator even exceeds these data, says Indira Shafikova, managing partner of RedStone. The expert adds that since February 10, seasonal spring fairs began to work in Moscow shopping centers, operators have no problems with their occupancy. And Mr. Vanchugov clarifies that a significant proportion of visitors now come to shopping centers to visit entertainment areas.
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