Trains on the Moscow-St. Petersburg high-speed line will run at a frequency of 10–15 minutes

Trains on the Moscow-St. Petersburg high-speed line (HSR) will run at a frequency of 10–15 minutes, said the head of the Ministry of Transport, Vitaly Savelyev. Neither the forecast passenger traffic nor the number of purchased trains, however, assume such a frequency of movement. According to experts, we are still talking about the minimum interval between trains, and not about the timing of movement: most likely, closer to this frequency, trains will depart at two peak hours in the evening and early in the morning, and at other times the intervals will be longer. At the same time, according to the head of the Ministry of Transport, the loss of aviation customers due to their outflow to the high-speed railway, which the President of the Russian Federation feared three years ago, is not critical for the industry and amounts to 14%.

At the meeting held on February 15 in Verkhnyaya Pyshma with the President of the Russian Federation on the issues of the Moscow-St. Petersburg high-speed highway, some new forecast parameters of the project were announced. Thus, it is planned that trains on the HSR, which will reduce travel time between cities to 2 hours and 15 minutes, “will run at a frequency of 10–15 minutes,” said the head of the Ministry of Transport, Vitaly Savelyev. According to him, at the initial stage in 2028, 28 trains will be needed – they will be jointly developed by Sinara and Transmashholding. In total, the needs are estimated at 44 trains.

High-speed rail passenger traffic should reach 23 million people in 2030, total passenger traffic between cities is 43.4 million (an increase of 35%). The industry is questioning whether the minister’s specified frequency is needed to service this traffic. The head of the Union of Passengers, Kirill Yankov, believes that the minister named the minimum possible frequency of traffic. These are different things. As the minimum possible (the necessary interval in case something happens to a train with a long braking distance), it is adequate – although on the Japanese Shinkansen the frequency is about five minutes. Another question, the expert says, is whether such a frequency is needed for the forecast passenger flow. Now the demand is met by aviation and Sapsan aircraft – eight to ten pairs per day. It is unlikely that passenger traffic will grow so much that it will not be satisfied by 20 pairs of high-speed trains per day. Uniform clock distribution, Mr. Yankov notes, is not necessary: ​​the fact that this is not necessary is evidenced by empty daytime trains on the Moscow diameter D4 towards Aprelevka and D3 towards Kryukovo. There is a morning peak and an even greater evening peak. It would be possible, for example, to put five pairs in the morning from 7:00 to 9:00 and seven in the evening, and it is possible that during the evening peak traffic will actually occur with a frequency of 15 minutes.

The construction of the high-speed railway also involves the return of freight traffic to the main course of the Oktyabrskaya Railway (OZD), from where it was removed with the launch of the Sapsanov high-speed train (for more details, see “Kommersant” dated November 23, 2021). JSC Russian Railways notes that as a result of the return of cargo to the “shortest main route of the Russian Railway,” the so-called circle of more than 565 km is eliminated, when cargo goes around along a long path. This will reduce the costs of shippers, the monopoly is confident. “Otherwise, the company will need to invest 583 billion rubles until 2030 for freight traffic alone. in the development of the Dmitrov-Mga direction, which does not solve the problems of passenger traffic,” notes Russian Railways. “Peregrine falcons,” Kirill Yankov believes, will have to be removed due to the introduction of the high-speed railway. But it’s too early to write them off as scrap metal, since the train lasts 30–35 years, and in 2029–2030, when, at the earliest, the high-speed railway will be introduced, the oldest Sapsan will serve only 22 years. Therefore, if the Russian Federation does not lose the opportunity to repair and maintain Sapsan trains without Siemens, the trains will not be removed and will probably remain on the main track, Mr. Yankov suggests. In his opinion, passenger traffic on the main route should be preserved: firstly, it passes through cities such as Tver, Bologoe, Vyshny Volochek, Chudovo, Klin, and the high-speed railway will be away from them. For example, in Tver the station is in the city center, and not all people will want to go to the HSR station far outside the city. Passenger traffic is compatible with freight traffic, Mr. Yankov believes, but Sapsan will run slower – not 200 km/h, as it is today, but 140–160 km/h.

Even at the annual press conference in 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted: “If the high-speed line comes in, aviation on this shoulder, Moscow-St. Petersburg, will cease to exist” (see “Kommersant” dated December 23, 2021). However, Vitaly Savelyev said that aviation estimates the loss of passengers at 14%. The transition to high-speed rail will amount to 3.2 million passengers, which, according to him, “is not critical for Russian aviation.” Kirill Yankov agrees that the HSR will not destroy aviation: firstly, not all people are comfortable with the Moscow or Leningradsky railway station; for some, Pulkovo or Sheremetyevo is suitable. Secondly, connecting flights are important: Moscow and Pulkovo airports are large hubs.

Natalya Skorlygina