Tools are selected for assets – Kommersant FM

The Central Bank expects inflation to return to 4% in 2024. Economists doubt this and are looking for ways to save savings. Price growth at the end of 2023 exceeded 7.5%. Inflation began to accelerate in the second half of the year, which came as a surprise to the Central Bank. The regulator had to rewrite the forecast twice and raise the key rate five times in a row: it rose to 16% per annum. Now the Bank of Russia expects to return inflation to the target of 4%. Kommersant FM’s interlocutors, however, believe that the realistic figure is 8%, and the population’s inflation expectations on the horizon of the year have soared to 14%. Kommersant FM asked market participants how to most effectively preserve savings in 2024.

The head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, at the last meeting of the Central Bank called for attention to deposits, the rates for which she called attractive. Banks actually improved conditions for deposits, but short-term programs turned out to be the most profitable. The average rate in the top 10 banks, according to the Financial Services portal, for three months is 14.5%, and for a year – only 12%. But Yuri Belikov, Managing Director for Validation at Expert RA, considers such conditions worthy:

“At best, in late spring, maybe even early summer, we can count on the first steps to reduce the key rate. They probably won’t be sharp. Therefore, banks are reacting to the situation. If we talk about deposits, we can see that the increase in rates affects not only short-term deposits for a period of three months, but also products of greater maturity, in particular, semi-annual deposits.

As for depositors and individuals, the main demand now will probably be for deposit products with a six-month maturity. Many would like more, but banks, of course, waiting for the start of the key rate reduction cycle, are unlikely to offer very high-yield deposits for a longer period.

In addition, now is the period of New Year promotional deposits, but their urgency may also be limited to six months. In any case, there is no longer any reason to count on fundamentally higher rates on deposits.”

Gold remains an alternative instrument for savings. In December, the exchange price for the precious metal broke a historical record of $2.1 thousand per troy ounce. Gazprombank notes that it is still in demand from central banks, and the prospect of lowering rates in the world’s largest economies also has a positive effect on the price. As a result, in 2024, gold price may rise to $2.3 thousand.

Russians still have several ways to invest in this precious metal. The most popular is exchange-traded gold, which can be purchased through a broker at the market price. In addition, Kommersant FM’s interlocutors suggest paying attention to shares of gold mining companies that can benefit from rising prices and share profits through dividends.

The alternative is to buy physical gold from banks. But, firstly, the investor will have to worry about the safe storage of the bullion, and, secondly, the difference in prices when buying and selling can be several tens of percent. Regardless of what the investor chooses, gold remains an attractive asset, confirms Bogdan Zvarich, chief analyst at Banki.ru:

“Gold consolidated in a fairly wide range: $1.8 thousand – $2.1 thousand per troy ounce. The dynamics will greatly depend on changes in monetary policy in the United States. If the Fed switches to a rate cutting cycle, this asset could actually show growth and rewrite its all-time high. However, this requires stabilization of inflation in America. In this case, we expect that gold can overcome the $2.1 thousand mark and consolidate in the range of $2.1 thousand-2.5 thousand per troy ounce and by the end of the year even move into its upper half in the event of an active rate reduction in USA”.

Currency remains a more traditional savings instrument for Russians. At the end of 2023, the dollar and euro rose in price by 30%, surpassing all deposit programs in banks in terms of profitability. At that moment, the American currency on the Moscow Exchange crossed the threshold of 103 rubles, and only government intervention helped strengthen the ruble.

In October, a decree was issued on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters, after which the dollar fell in price to 90 rubles. However, this norm expires after the presidential elections in 2024 and, for example, the Tinkoff Investments broker expects a new round of devaluation to 100 rubles. for a dollar. Against this background, investing in foreign currency can be profitable, but it is important to choose a safe method, says Dmitry Alexandrov, managing director of the investment company Ivolga Capital:

“We saw that even with a good situation in the price of oil, the national currency weakened. There are decrees on the repatriation of foreign currency earnings, however, the short-lived strengthening of the ruble was still replaced by its fall.

If the price of oil remains at reduced levels, this will greatly impact foreign exchange earnings and, accordingly, ruble positions. And the second point is the level of rigidity of foreign exchange controls. If, for example, bans are introduced on the withdrawal of rubles outside the Russian Federation beyond a certain limit, this could strengthen the national currency.

In my opinion, it is always good to have currency diversification in a portfolio. Another thing is that storing dollars and euros in banks or on the stock exchange can be dangerous due to sanctions. In fact, I would not rule out infrastructure risks for the yuan.

If we remember the blocking on the St. Petersburg Exchange, the Hong Kong dollar also turned out to be blocked. I would probably give preference here to either replacement bonds, or consider futures instruments, it cannot be blocked. At the same time, keeping part of the portfolio in cache may be reasonable, but this is probably a question of the size of the portfolio. You can export cash currency abroad in an amount of no more than $10 thousand. There may be certain difficulties. If risk scenarios come true, it is difficult to do anything with this currency. There is a question of where and how to store it and what to do with it after the money is needed.”

In addition, a new long-term savings program from the Ministry of Finance should appear in 2024. The state offers to co-finance citizens’ savings depending on their income. If a Russian earns up to 80 thousand rubles, then he is asked to save 36 thousand rubles. per year, and the state will add the same amount from the budget. More than 36 thousand rubles. You can’t get it per person.

Minister Anton Siluanov promised to personally participate in the program. However, it will be possible to withdraw the money only after 15 years.

---

Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.

Ivan Yakunin