Tinkoff shares appeared on the Moscow Exchange for the first time after a long break
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Tinkoff shares (MOEX: TCSG) began trading with a sharp decline, the securities immediately lost more than 6%. In the afternoon, shares began to rise. Today they appeared on the Moscow Exchange for the first time after a long break. Since mid-February, trading has been suspended due to the “move” from Cyprus to Russian jurisdiction. Now the securities of a new parent legal entity – MK PJSC TKS Holding – have entered the market.
During the downtime, significant news appeared on the market, to which investors reacted: at the end of last week, it became known about Tinkoff’s plans to merge with Rosbank, explained Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager of Alfa Capital: “The first point is that there are a number of investors who bought Tinkoff securities in the external perimeter at a discount to the market price on the Moscow Exchange, and, most likely, this is simply a desire to fix profits on their positions.
What is unexpected is the latest news on the company regarding a possible merger with Rosbank. Additional share issues are possible; it may be that someone is overestimating the prospects of Tinkoff and, just in case, is trying to stay on the sidelines for now. Much will depend on the details of the additional share issue transaction. How will banks be valued relative to each other? What are the possible synergies? This will probably be clear after shareholders vote on this deal.”
To purchase Rosbank, TKS Holding will need to issue 61 million new shares – this is a third of the group’s capital, Alfa Bank has calculated. Vladimir Potanin, under whose control both structures are now located, calls this deal integration, and Tinkoff says that they are taking the bank “under an umbrella.” Experts differ in their forecasts for the investment attractiveness of the future merged company, since the parameters of the merger are not yet clear. Before certainty emerges, the Tinkoff group’s securities will trade with great volatility, believes Alexey Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group:
“From an objective point of view, both the redomiciliation and the merger of the two banks are excellent news. They mean that a new major promising player in the financial and technological sphere is emerging on the Russian stock market. If analytical decisions were made in the market, then most likely the situation would be different. The fact is that the modern Russian stock market is a rather unusual place; it is not like what it was before.
It is where the retail investor rules the roost. The retail investor is a capricious and emotional creature and needs to be liked. This is well understood, for example, by German Gref, who does excellent work aimed at promoting the companies he heads. There are no such charismatics at Tinkoff at the moment; volatility may be quite high in the near future. I wouldn’t be surprised by major price fluctuations of, say, 10%.”
The merger of TKS Holding and Rosbank will lead to the creation of a new player in the banking sector, which will become the fifth largest in the country with a capital of about 500 billion rubles, analysts predict. The structure will be second only to Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank and Alfa Bank in terms of assets. In the meantime, Tinkoff Bank is in 11th place for this indicator based on last year’s results, and Rosbank is in 12th place.
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