Tightening conditions for preferential mortgages led to a decrease in activity in the primary real estate market

Tightening conditions for preferential mortgage programs has led to a decrease in activity in the primary market: buyers are taking longer to prepare for transactions, and in the capital region their number decreased by 15% over the month. However, the average cost of new buildings continues to grow slowly, increasing by 1.1% per month. More thorough screening of borrowers by banks will put pressure on demand in the future, but developers will probably be ready to offer buyers only spot discounts.

The average cost of new buildings in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in March reached 166.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m, increasing by 1.1% over the month, as calculated by Cyan.Analyst. Etazhi notes that the primary supply in Russia costs on average 133.8 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Monthly growth – 3%. Avito Real Estate noticed an increase in the national average by 0.4% per month and by 8.7% per year, to 147.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Yandex Real Estate recorded an increase in prices for new buildings in important cities at the level of 2% per month.

Analysts do not consider the price increase to be pronounced. The head of Cyan.Analytics, Alexey Popov, draws attention to the fact that the promises of developers to index indicators based on the amount of bank commissions ultimately did not materialize: some credit institutions eventually abandoned this initiative, while others softened the conditions. The expert does not rule out that special prices for holders of approved mortgage loans could have been offered orally, but were not included in the price lists.

The most pronounced increase in the average supply price on the primary market over the month, according to Cian.Analytics, occurred in Samara. The indicator increased by 4.7%, to 116 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Yekaterinburg, the growth, according to Etazhi, was 3%, the price reached 138.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Avito Real Estate noticed an increase in the average indicator in Ufa by 4.3% per month, to 148.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In the largest markets, the dynamics are restrained.

In Moscow, according to calculations by Cian.Analytics, new buildings cost an average of 344.8 thousand rubles, in St. Petersburg – 248.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Over the month, the figures increased by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.

Alexey Popov draws attention to the reduction in the number of transactions. In total, in the Moscow region, according to his calculations, 8 thousand equity participation agreements were registered in February. This is 15% lower than in January and 5% behind the result for the same period last year. “The number of ad views remains high, but conversion rates have decreased,” he said. The expert attributes the dynamics to changes in the conditions for preferential mortgage programs, in particular to the reduction of loan limits in the capital regions to the standard 6 million rubles. The head of the primary direction of Avito Real Estate, Dmitry Alekseev, says that user activity on the platform in the segment of new buildings in February was 4.4% lower than a year earlier.

Commercial Director of Yandex Real Estate Evgeny Belokurov notes that the buyer’s time to enter into a transaction has now generally increased: it is more difficult to make a decision, and a layer of deferred demand is being formed from buyers waiting for softening market conditions.

Mr. Alekseev considers a positive factor for new buildings to be the transition of potential buyers of finished housing into this segment due to prohibitive rates on the secondary market.

“Plus, at the end of February, holders of maternity capital become more active and are looking for an option to invest an indexed amount,” adds Sergei Zaitsev, sales director at Etazhi.

Dmitry Alekseev notes that the volume of exposure of new buildings in Russia increased by 10.1% over the month, and by 43.2% over the year. Although, at the moment, most developers, according to Mr. Zaitsev’s observations, have slowed down the launch of new projects due to the uncertainty that existed at the beginning of the year regarding preferential programs. Alexey Popov draws attention to the fact that over the past two months, banks and developers have been primarily busy discussing new terms of cooperation.

Sergei Zaitsev expects relatively stable demand for new buildings throughout the first half of the year. This will contribute to a moderate increase in average prices – at the level of 1% per month, he believes. Although Alexey Popov notes that since March 1, the system of scoring borrowers by banks has become more stringent, which may further put pressure on demand. He does not exclude the launch of installment programs, as well as targeted discounts. But he calls a massive reduction in declared prices unlikely, predicting near-zero dynamics. Evgeniy Belokurov adds that fluctuations in any case strongly depend on the region. “Where targeted mortgage programs are available – Far Eastern mortgages, Arctic mortgages – the price will rise faster,” he says.

Alexandra Mertsalova