There was a demand for the currency – Newspaper Kommersant No. 236 (7437) dated 12/20/2022

Rates of major currencies on the Russian market have updated multi-month highs. In particular, the dollar exchange rate approached 68.5 rubles/$, the euro – 72.6 rubles/€, the yuan – 9.8 rubles/CNY. This was facilitated by an increase in demand due to fears of a decrease in the inflow of foreign exchange earnings into the country, as well as a new package of European sanctions. However, by the end of the week, the ruble may win back some of the lost positions against the backdrop of an increase in the supply of foreign currency by exporters, who will begin to prepare for paying taxes.

The ruble began the new trading week with a rapid weakening of its positions against the world’s leading currencies. The bullish game began at the morning session of the Moscow Exchange (the dollar exchange rate overcame 65 rubles / $), and in the main auction by 16:10 the rate reached 68.48 rubles / $ – the maximum since May 11. As a result of trading, the value of the American currency amounted to 67.7 rubles / $, more than 3 rubles. higher than Friday’s close. The euro exchange rate also updated a seven-month high during trading, reaching 72.61 rubles / €, and closed at 72.1 rubles / €, adding 3 rubles per day. The yuan rose by 38 kopecks in a day, to 9.66 rubles, while during the day it reached 9.81 rubles, the maximum value since July 7. For five days, foreign currency has risen in price by 7.4-8.6%.

Market participants noted a noticeable increase in speculative activity in exchange trading. The volume of trading with the dollar for tomorrow delivery exceeded 123 billion rubles, the second largest result in the fourth quarter. The volume of trading with the Chinese currency reached 112 billion rubles – the second largest result for the entire period of trading in this currency. Other friendly currencies were also actively traded – Kazakhstani tenge (1.14 billion rubles, the third result in history) and the Hong Kong dollar (1.06 billion rubles, a record result).

Rise of rates contributed to the speculation on the reduction of the trade surplus against the backdrop of new European sanctions, as well as the installation of a ceiling on gas prices.

Under the sanctions, as noted by Viktor Shcheglov, senior personal broker at BCS World of Investments, oil and gas revenues will decline, while imports, on the contrary, will gain momentum. Otkritie Research estimates that the current account could shrink to $35 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $77 billion in the second quarter. As a result, speculative investors began to accumulate currency on the eve of the long New Year holidays in Russia, expecting higher levels of quotations next year. “Investors tend to buy currency to roll over positions through this period, reducing the potential impact of geopolitical risks,” said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department at Zenit Bank.

At the same time, there is still demand for currencies from the real sector. “Large purchases of foreign currency were noticeable on the market,” the interlocutor at the market said. According to the head of the global research department at Otkritie Investments, Mikhail Shulgin, large representatives of the real sector, on the eve of the new sanctions, buy raw materials or pay for the supply of any equipment for the future. Increased foreign exchange demand also generates excess ruble liquidity, “which comes from a number of sources, including the budget,” he notes.

The situation was aggravated by the low supply of foreign currency on the part of exporters, who only in the coming days will begin to prepare funds for paying taxes.

According to Mikhail Shulgin, exporters can play a smart tactical game, allowing the ruble to weaken in order to buy it at more profitable levels.

However, in the second half of the week, as the peak of MET, VAT, excise tax payments, which falls on December 26, approaches, the pressure on the ruble exchange rate may decrease, analysts say. According to Vladimir Evstifeev, the amount of payments will amount to 1.44 trillion rubles, which is 60% more than the November payments. “If such a scenario is implemented, the dollar exchange rate may drop to 64–65 rubles/$,” he notes. PSB Chief Analyst Denis Popov admits the strengthening of the ruble in the first quarter of 2023 to 62-63 rubles / $. However, in general, according to him, a gradual weakening of the ruble exchange rate to 75-80 rubles / $ by the end of 2023 is predicted.

Vitaly Gaidaev