There is nothing for the fish to blush for – Newspaper Kommersant No. 4 (7449) of 01/12/2023

A sharp rise in prices and difficulties with imports threaten to reduce the share of salmon in the structure of fish consumption in Russia, the National Rating Agency expects. The size of the redfish market may already have dwindled since the food embargo in 2014, with buyers switching to cheaper species. Against this background, the export of red fish is likely to continue to grow, experts predict.

In the coming years, against the backdrop of economic difficulties, fish consumption in Russia may decrease by 5-7% per person per year, and the share of salmon in the demand structure is likely to decrease. This is stated in the study of the National Rating Agency (NRA). In 2021, according to Rosstat, fish consumption decreased by 2%, to 21.7 kg per person per year.

The decrease in demand for red fish in the NRA is associated with rising prices. According to analysts, the average price of salmon in 2022 increased by 25% year-on-year, exceeding 1,000 rubles for the first time in history. per 1 kg in April, while prices for frozen white fish are growing in line with inflation. According to the NRA, the increase in salmon prices is due to a decrease in the catch in 2022 to 280 thousand tons against 539 thousand tons a year earlier, as well as high dependence on imports against the backdrop of tougher Western sanctions against the Russian Federation and logistical difficulties. According to NRA estimates, Chile and the Faroe Islands provided about 60% of salmon and red fish fillet imports to the Russian Federation, but today supplies from these countries are under pressure.

Ilya Sosnov, CEO of Russia’s largest salmon and trout producer Inarctica, says that due to disruption in supply chains and currency fluctuations, the Russian redfish market in 2022 has already declined compared to 2014-2015. In 2015, according to the company’s statements, due to rising prices for imported salmon and the food embargo imposed by the Russian Federation, the volume of the chilled red fish market fell by more than 70%. In 2021, imports and domestic production of red fish were estimated at 152 thousand tons. According to Mr. Sosnov, in 2023 the market volume is likely to remain at the level of 2022, with possible small fluctuations. The Voskhod fishing holding (part of AFK Sistema) believes that in terms of red fish consumption, 2022 was not indicative due to the low catch in the Far East. For 2023, production is estimated positively, which will allow saturating the domestic market with products at affordable prices, they say.

Chairman of the Presidium of the Association of Retail Companies (AKORT; includes X5 Group, Magnit, Lenta, Auchan, etc.) Igor Karavaev says that the consumption of fish products, especially salmon, has been declining over the past three years. In 2022, according to preliminary estimates by AKORT, demand has decreased by about 15-18%. In the fourth quarter, sales of salmon fell noticeably, by more than 30%, but sales of trout increased by a similar amount due to the expansion of the supply of fish from Karelia and North Ossetia, as well as from Turkey, he says. As Mr. Karavaev noted, the redistribution of demand is facilitated by the difference in the price of trout and salmon by 30-40%.

Executive Director of the Association of Industrial and Commercial Enterprises of the Fish Market Alexander Fomin notes that the real consumption of fish in Russia is already at the level of 17-18 kg per person per year. According to him, fish continues to rise in price all over the world, so with a drop in purchasing power, we should expect a further decline in demand in the category. According to Mr. Fomin’s forecasts, the share of exports in the proceeds of fishermen will grow in the coming years. So, he points out, until recently, the Russian Federation exported only about 35-45 thousand tons of sockeye salmon per year from the red fish caught to Japan, and in recent years supplies of cheaper pink salmon to China have also begun.

Alexei Osintsev, President of the Association of Fishing Fleet Owners, notes that high-quality semi-finished products, including from affordable table fish species, are increasingly in demand in retail and catering. According to him, the output of such products will grow with the commissioning of new processing vessels and onshore plants, and this opens up good prospects for the domestic market.

Anatoly Kostyrev