The yuan is pushing the dollar at the auctions of the Moscow Exchange

On the Moscow Exchange, the yuan begins to dominate in all major trading modes for currency pairs. Over the past three days, the total volume of trading in Chinese currency with the execution of transactions “today” amounted to 110 billion rubles. against about 100 billion rubles. with US dollar. Analysts attribute what is happening to the high interest in the currency on the part of the population, which, against the backdrop of a strong depreciation of the ruble, is increasingly choosing to protect the currencies of friendly countries, primarily the yuan.

The activity of trading in yuan with delivery “today” on the Moscow Exchange on August 21 was higher than in the dollar for almost the whole day, and only at the close of the session gave way to the palm. At the end of the day, the volume of trading with the Chinese currency amounted to 32 billion rubles. against 33.5 billion rubles. in US dollar. In the previous two days, the yuan managed to maintain dominance with a result of 40.5 billion rubles. and 37 billion rubles, which is 21% and 17% higher than in US dollars. In July, the volume of trading in the American currency was on average one third higher than in the yuan, and at the beginning of the year it was four to ten times higher.

The situation is interesting because in the trading mode with the execution of orders “tomorrow” the yuan has been consistently more liquid than the dollar since the beginning of spring. On Monday, the volume of trading in the Chinese currency in this mode amounted to more than 166 billion rubles, while with the US currency – only 122 billion rubles.

In July, the total volume of trading in yuan with delivery “tomorrow” amounted to more than 2.4 trillion rubles. against 1.7 trillion rubles. in dollar.

The overall strengthening of the role of the yuan in the Russian market is associated with the de-dollarization of the economy and the financial system. But in different parts, the replacement of “toxic currencies” by the currencies of friendly countries is uneven. According to Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, the main players in the trading mode with “tomorrow” settlements are banks and large companies, for which the regime is more convenient in terms of liquidity management and regulation of the open currency position. Due to the increased sanctions risks, they actively moved away from the dollar and the euro in their work. In particular, the share of toxic currencies in exports fell from 85% before the start of the NWO to less than 30% in July, according to the Central Bank.

In trading mode with “today” settlements, one usually sells or buys the currency needed at the moment. The main participants in this section, as noted by the head of the analytical department of Bank Zenit Vladimir Evstifeev, are trading companies, travel agencies and banks in the framework of client exchange operations and other corporate players. Such companies are more likely to satisfy the real demand for the currency, rather than the speculative one. Therefore, trading in this mode is traditionally a barometer of demand for currency from the population, he says.

Citizens were less active in reducing the share of the dollar in their savings. According to the Central Bank, according to the results of the first half of the year, the share of toxic currencies in the structure of foreign currency deposits and accounts was 86%, having decreased by only 3 percentage points since the beginning of the year. The share of the yuan rose from 11% to 14%.

The recent weakening of the ruble has provoked an increased interest of Russians in currencies as part of the conversion of savings and protecting them from devaluation. At the same time, they are increasingly considering the yuan as an alternative to reserve currencies.

“Possession of dollars and euros under the sanctions looks risky, since these currencies are associated with a number of restrictions and increased commissions. From this point of view, the yuan looks less risky, which is reflected in the growth of its popularity within the Russian Federation,” notes Vladimir Evstifeev.

Analysts expect the process of increasing the role of the yuan in the Russian foreign exchange market and in the economy and, to a lesser extent, other currencies of friendly countries will continue. “We do not expect any rapid acceleration of development in other friendly currencies, in addition to the yuan, in the coming quarters,” Mikhail Vasiliev clarifies, explaining that so far “only the yuan can claim the title of a liquid and reliable currency for trade and settlements instead of the dollar and the euro “.

Vitaly Gaidaev