The volume of warehouse commissioning in 2024 is set for a record

High demand from retailers and logistics providers in the warehouse market has led to a construction boom in this segment: the volume of space commissioned in 2024 may increase by one and a half times, setting a record in the history of observation. Despite high demand, the payback period for warehouse developers has doubled due to the high cost of lending. At the same time, unclaimed projects may appear on the market – with an unsuccessfully selected location or delayed commissioning.

By 2024, 4.55 million sq. m. have been announced to be commissioned in Russia. m of warehouse real estate, which is 55.3% more year-on-year, Nikoliers calculated, adding that this is the highest figure in the last ten years. CORE.XP also expects that the annual commissioning volume in the segment will reach 5.3 million sq. m. m, in NF Group – by 5.9 million sq. m. m, which is 83% more year on year. CMWP partner Egor Dorofeev adds that in Moscow, commissioning year on year could increase by 20%, to 1.8 million sq. m. m.

A characteristic feature of the warehouse market has been a shift in focus to the regions: this year, according to Nikoliers, for the first time more space may be leased outside Moscow than in the capital. Thus, the capital region accounts for 41.7% of the declared areas, or 1.9 million square meters. m, St. Petersburg – 9.7%, or 439 thousand sq. m. m. At the same time, the share of all other regions is 48.7%, or 2.2 million sq. m. m. Regional director of the Nikoliers warehouse and industrial real estate department, Viktor Afanasenko, attributes the trend to the active expansion of e-commerce companies and retailers into the regions. Anton Alyabyev, senior director of the warehouse and industrial real estate department at CORE.XP, adds that logistics operators are now quite actively concluding deals.

Anton Komarov, director of the warehouse real estate department at Accent Capital, notes that the market is under strong pressure from the restructuring of supply chains in favor of the eastern part of the country. SDEK Operations Director Alexander Khandogin says that his company currently cannot find sites in eight cities. “New facilities are often built far from cities, which makes them unsuitable for our business,” he explains.

Mr. Afanasenko believes that supply is not yet keeping pace with growing demand: vacancy in the regions is only 1.7%. This, according to expert forecasts, could lead to an increase in the average rental rate by 8–17%, to 6.5–7 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m per year. He suggests that continued strong demand will mean that space delivery in 2025-26 could exceed 2024 levels. Anton Alyabyev notes that developers prefer to build warehouses mainly for specific customers. The share of free space in projects under construction in Moscow, according to him, is 22%; in the regions we are talking about several tens of thousands of square meters in total.

Mr. Afanasenko names the growing cost of construction, overload of key developers, and financing conditions as potential pitfalls for warehouses. Maintaining a high key rate of the Central Bank has reduced the profitability of investments in warehouse complexes, notes Mr. Komarov. Managing Director of NC Logistic Harold Vlasov believes that building speculative warehouses is now unprofitable. “The payback period for constructing a warehouse with subsequent leasing in 2023 has increased from seven to 14 years, that is, doubled,” he says.

Natalya Tereshina, director of warehouse and industrial real estate at the Rusich concern, adds that the main risk for new projects is not taking into account the specific requirements of potential tenants. The expert adds that many complexes are initially declared as speculative, but in the end do not go on the open market, but find a tenant before construction is completed. According to her, such a model is a less risky implementation scenario.

Skladman USG partner Evgeniy Numerov doubts that in the next five years it will be possible to talk about saturation of the warehouse market, but does not rule out that projects in unsuccessful locations, with poor access roads or errors in concepts will remain unfilled. “The problematic location includes two factors: the need to increase the transport distance and the inability to sufficiently provide the site with labor resources,” says Mr. Vlasov. Artem Serenkov, director for product distribution development at VseInstrumenty.ru, also fears that developers cannot deliver all objects on time due to fluctuations in prices for building materials.

Alexandra Mertsalova