The volume of loans issued to individuals decreased by 4%

At the end of September, the volume of loans issued to individuals decreased by 4% compared to the record August, and if not for another mortgage record, the failure would have been significant. The largest decline was shown by the retail unsecured lending segment against the backdrop of rising rates and tightening regulation by the Bank of Russia. Until the end of the year, market participants and experts expect restrained lending activity in the consumer segment.

In September 2023, banks issued loans to individuals in the amount of 1,73 trillion rubles, data shows Frank RG. This result is 4% lower than the previous month. Thus, September became the first month since April when the consumer lending segment showed a decline. However, the first month of autumn has never been characterized by stable indicators in the credit market, such as, for example, December before the New Year (with confident growth even in crisis years) or post-New Year January (with an equally confident decline amid the long holidays). Over ten years, in half of the cases the market showed an increase in indicators in September, and in half – a decline.

At the same time, the September result is the second in terms of monthly volume of loans issued (after August) since 2014. However, it was possible to maintain the indicator at this level only due to the mortgage segment. Against the backdrop of continued subsidization of mortgage loans in the primary market by the state, this segment continues to grow steadily (see “Kommersant” dated October 2). In September, the volume of mortgage issuance reached a record 962 billion rubles, exceeding the August figure by 12%. Compared to the result a year ago, this result increased by 85%. Moreover, it’s not just a matter of rising real estate prices; the number of mortgage loans issued increased by 10% over the month, and by 72% over the year.

Without taking into account the mortgage segment, the consumer credit market has dropped significantly.

Thus, issues in the retail unsecured lending segment fell by 22% compared to the August value, to RUB 580 billion. The result was the worst since February of this year. The issuance of car loans also decreased for the second month in a row. However, the decrease was insignificant – only 2% compared to August, to 143.5 billion rubles. (the third result for the entire observation period).

Experts attribute the sharp narrowing of the unsecured lending segment to rising rates and tightening regulation.

In this segment (unlike long-term secured loans), “the increase in the key rate is almost completely transferred to the cost of the loan,” explains Dmitry Gritskevich, manager for analysis of the banking and financial markets of PSB. Let us recall that over the past two months the Bank of Russia has twice raised the key rate by a total of 4.5 percentage points, to 13%. The dynamics of consumer lending were influenced by “the new surcharges from the regulator that took effect in September, which led to an additional increase in the cost of loans for the most heavily indebted citizens,” adds Mikhail Doronkin, managing director of the NKR rating agency. In particular, the share of borrowers with a debt burden ratio (DLI) of more than 80% should not exceed 5% of total loans, and the share of borrowers with a DLI of 50% to 80% should not exceed 30%.

Bankers confirm a decline in lending in September and expect the trend to continue in all segments. “The total volume of retail lending decreased by less than 9%, including in car lending – by 7.5%,” says Denis Kovalev, director of the department of retail lending business at Rosbank. This is due to an increase in interest rates and the introduction of additional macroprudential restrictions from September.

According to market participants and experts, the dynamics of consumer lending will remain subdued until the end of the year.

Given the continuing risks of further tightening of monetary policy, the portfolio growth rate may drop to 1% per month, estimates Valery Piven, head of the ACRA financial institutions ratings group. As Viktor Kuzmin, head of the analytics department at the financial marketplace Sravni.ru, notes, local dates like Black Friday or the New Year holidays will allow traditional growth to be shown. In the autumn-winter period, the driver of the retail market will continue to be collateral lending. But against the backdrop of changes in the Central Bank’s requirements for preferential programs and an increase in the key rate, the mortgage market will also experience a cooling in the fourth quarter, VTB does not rule out the possibility.

Polina Trifonova