The volume of cash in the hands of the population continues to decline
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According to the Bank of Russia, the volume of cash in the hands of citizens continues to decline. However, toxic dollars and euros still account for the majority of surviving foreign exchange savings, while the share of friendly currencies is only 13% of account and deposit balances.
According to the results of the first quarter of 2023, the volume of foreign currency in cash among the population decreased by 17.8 billion rubles, follows from published Central Bank of the Russian Federation dynamics of household investment in cash national and foreign currency.
Over the same period, the volume of cash ruble funds in the hands of households increased by 300.6 billion rubles. (against an increase of 1.2 trillion rubles in the fourth quarter of 2022). In total, at the beginning of April, cash accounted for 17% of the financial assets of households, or 22.5 trillion rubles, 33.3% (44.1 trillion rubles) – deposits, 35.3% (46.8 trillion rubles) – shares and other forms of equity participation.
According to the data, the decline in foreign exchange cash in quarterly dynamics slowed down, in the previous, fourth quarter of 2022, the volume of foreign currency decreased by 69.5 billion rubles, before that the indicator grew, including to record levels in the first quarter of 2022 (it amounted to 1 2 trillion rubles). There is no breakdown by types of currencies in the statistics.
The decrease in the amount of currency in the hands of the population is quite adequate to the current situation, says Mikhail Matovnikov, head of the financial analytics center of Sberbank.
According to him, tourism can serve as the main category of cash spending in this case. “In the first quarter of last year, the Russians stocked up with a large amount of foreign currency, then some was returned to banks, and when it became clear that it would be possible to withdraw it in rubles (this restriction of the Central Bank is valid until September 9, 2023.— “b”), then gradually this cash began to melt,” he explains.
At the same time, the expert draws attention, the assessment of the Central Bank in terms of the volume of currency in the hands of the population is approximate. The estimate is calculated on the basis of, among other things, bank statements on the sale and purchase of foreign currency, the declared volume of foreign currency imports and other data.
According to the Central Bank, in foreign currency accounts and deposits of retail clients, as of May 1, 2023, only 13% of funds accounted for “non-toxic” currencies, while “toxic” accounted for 87%.
The volume of savings in “toxic” currency has remained stable in recent months (at the level of 87-89%).
According to Mr. Matovnikov, in this case, much depends on the strategy and behavior of clients: someone believes that the ruble is devaluing, someone is waiting for a convenient exchange rate to get out of “toxic” foreign exchange savings, the strategy to keep the currency at the current low rates “and still be in the black” justified itself in the first half of 2023, but may no longer give similar results. However, despite this, the devaluation of deposits and within this trend, the rejection of “toxic” currencies on the market is taking place, he emphasizes.
In addition, according to the latest monitoring by Frank RG, the number of large Russian banks that have deposits in dollars and euros in their lineup is declining (see Fig. “Kommersant” dated July 3). But appear exotic savings offers in friendly currencies.
In general, cash transactions in the structure of financial assets of households in the first quarter accounted for an increase of 283 billion rubles, deposit operations – 419 billion rubles, shares and other participation in capital – 544 billion rubles. The increase in deposits occurred as a result of an increase in the volume of ruble funds by 524.4 billion rubles. and deposits in non-resident banks by 424.8 billion rubles. But the dynamics of deposits in foreign currency, according to the Central Bank, is still negative, in the first quarter there was a decrease by 421.6 billion rubles.
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