The volume of car loans issued in February reached a historical maximum

At the end of February, the car loan market returned to record levels. Russians are trying to satisfy existing demand before prices for foreign cars rise from April 1, and dealers are trying to clear warehouses for new supplies. In conditions of overstocking of warehouses, average car loan sizes have remained stable since July last year. This positive trend in the market will continue in March, experts believe. However, in the coming months, against the backdrop of continued high rates and rising car prices, records may not be updated.

At the end of February 2024, car loan market indicators reached historical highs. The volume of loans issued exceeded 171 billion rubles, according to Frank RG express monitoring data. This result is 29% higher than in January and more than double that of last year. The number of loans issued reached 121 thousand, which is 28% higher than in January and 90% higher than a year ago. At the same time, the average transaction volume increased by a symbolic 1% and amounted to RUB 1.42 million. The figure has actually been kept close to this mark since July 2023.

Compared to the best months of last year – July and October – the difference in the volume of loans issued and in their number is small, about 3%. However, this growth occurred contrary to forecasts – previously, market participants and experts expected a slowdown in the growth rate of car lending this year (see Kommersant on January 22). “The market has so far managed to delay the moment when high interest rates begin to significantly affect lending volumes,” says Frank RG project leader Stanislav Sukhov.

Among the factors that currently support lending volumes in the segment are expectations of an increase in car prices from April 1, when changes in the import of cars from the EAEU countries come into force and the recycling fee begins to apply. According to the director of the financial institutions rating group of the NKR agency, Yegor Lopatin, in this case, prices could increase by 20–30% for both new cars in car dealerships and used cars.

In addition, at the beginning of the year, according to the director of the group for servicing companies in the automotive industry of the DRT company, Alexander Vasilyev, rates on car loans “did not turn out to be prohibitive for the consumer due to special products, within which distributors subsidized part of the rate, as well as through programs with state support “

And the situation will not change dramatically in March, analysts say. “Automakers will struggle to sell what they already have in stock. And for new arrivals of Chinese cars, competition will continue to increase, which will not allow prices for new products to rise significantly (see Kommersant, July 31, 2023),” Marina Dembitskaya, head of Otkritie Auto, is optimistic.

However, analysts indicate that already in the second quarter the average car loan size will return to growth again following rising car prices. As a result, sales volumes may decrease. Already in the spring, against the backdrop of continued high interest rates and the exhaustion of a significant part of demand, we should expect a slowdown in the segment, Mr. Lopatin is sure. Bankers also maintain a restrained forecast for market growth despite recording record growth in February. “We predicted an increase in car lending of 10–15%, and so far these forecasts are being realized. High interest rates are now the main limiting factor, the situation will begin to change in the second half of the year,” says Expobank Managing Director Dmitry Maslov.

Polina Trifonova