The void leaves the logoparks – Newspaper Kommersant No. 46 (7491) of 03/20/2023

Growth in sales on marketplaces and stocks of goods from distributors led to a recovery in demand for warehouse real estate. Since the beginning of the year, the volume of vacant space in the logo parks of Moscow and the Moscow region has decreased by a quarter, to 340 thousand square meters. m. This allows the owners of objects to eliminate the excess supply that arose a year ago after the withdrawal of Western companies from the Russian market. However, developers are not yet eager to launch new projects in this segment due to increased construction costs and uncertainty about the long-term high demand for warehouse space.

From January to mid-March 2023, the volume of free space in the logo parks of Moscow and the Moscow region decreased by 26%, to 340 thousand square meters. m, returning to the indicator of the beginning of 2022, follows from the CORE.XP report.

Analysts emphasize that the market has liquidated the oversupply that arose a year ago due to the departure of international companies. As a result, now the share of vacant premises has dropped to 1.9%, while at the peak of the release of space, in August 2022, it was 4.8%. According to the results of the first quarter of this year, the volume of transactions for the lease of warehouse space may reach at least 300 thousand square meters. m, which corresponds to the first quarter of 2022, is predicted in CORE.XP.

Among the main tenants are Russian distributors and logistics operators, which increase the supply of goods to the country through parallel imports, said Alexandra Shakola, Director of Leasing and Marketing at Radius Group. There is also demand from large marketplaces, which have increased turnover, adds Orientir Group CEO Andrey Postnikov.

Previously empty logoparks are already occupied by tenants, and again there may be a shortage of supply, says Viktor Afanasenko, director of the warehouse real estate department at Nikoliers. Already now it is impossible to rent in a single lot of areas from 50 thousand square meters in existing logoparks. m, as online retailers did last fall, adds Anton Alyabiev, Head of Warehouse and Industrial Real Estate at CORE.XP. According to him, large tenants do not have to rely on vacant space in new facilities, as the annual construction volume is forecast at a modest level – about 1.2 million square meters. m, which is a third less than in 2021-2022.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that in recent years the volume of speculative construction in the warehouse segment has decreased, when the object is filled by tenants during its construction or after it has been put into operation.

Now the total area of ​​such facilities does not exceed 500 thousand square meters. m, while the annual demand for such areas in Moscow and the region rarely fell below 1 million square meters. m, says Mr. Alyabyev. And this volume was rented at the construction stage, adds Ekaterina Nogay, head of the research and analytics department at IBC Real Estate.

In the current realities, developers are not yet interested in starting new speculative projects, given the high cost of construction and a short planning horizon, partner Ricci | Consulting and evaluation” Yana Kuzina. In addition, developers are not sure that the high demand for warehouse space that has arisen will continue at least in the short term, adds one of the market participants. According to Ms. Kuzina’s forecasts, by the end of 2023, the vacancy rate in logoparks will again reach near-zero values, that is, no more than 0.5%.

Companies wishing to lease a large amount of space will have to return to the build-to-suit deal format, when an object is built for a specific tenant or buyer, does not exclude the investment director of Trinfico Vladimir Stolnikov. Last year, Konstantin Fomichenko, director of the industrial and warehouse real estate department at NF Group, explains that due to the large volume of free ready-made logo parks in this format, there was no need: as a result, the volume of build-to-suit transactions decreased six times, to 181 thousand square meters. . m.

Daria Andrianova