The transfer of the first two SJ100s to Aeroflot has been postponed to 2024

As Kommersant found out, the delivery of the first two import-substituted SJ 100s for Aeroflot has been finally postponed to 2024. A number of Kommersant sources believe that the operation of the aircraft will begin no earlier than the end of next year. Rostec explained that they will hand over the aircraft when they are confident in their safety, “without compromising on deadlines in work on quality.” The final dates will be determined by the progress of testing the PD-8 engine, the first flight of which is scheduled for December. Experts note that the deadlines set after the introduction of sanctions were “extremely optimistic,” but the wait is not critical for Aeroflot.

The arrival of the first two SJ 100s into Aeroflot’s fleet has been finally postponed to 2024, sources in the aviation industry, as well as interlocutors close to the airline and Rostec, told Kommersant. It was assumed that import-substituted aircraft with Russian PD-8 engines would be delivered by the end of 2023. All parties, according to Kommersant, agreed on the transfer of supplies. In total, Aeroflot should receive 34 SJ 100s by 2025.

A number of Kommersant sources believe that regular flights on the “Russified” aircraft will begin no earlier than the second half or even the end of 2024. Technical acceptance of the aircraft, which does not imply the start of payments for leasing, may take place a little earlier: the aircraft will formally be transferred to the airline, but at first they will “remain on the manufacturer’s territory” (Yakovlev, part of Rostec) until the completion of certification of all Russian systems and units, Kommersant’s interlocutors clarify.

One of Kommersant’s sources calls the second half of 2024 a logical date for the start of regular flights, given that the first flight of an aircraft with Russian engines is planned before the end of 2023: “We need to test the new engines, then complete all the planned tests of the aircraft with new systems for full certification “

A Kommersant source close to the Aeroflot group says that there are no complaints against Yakovlev: “All issues have been agreed upon.” Another interlocutor close to the manufacturer confirmed that the parties had reached an understanding: “Taking into account the scale of import substitution tasks and the load on the existing aircraft fleet, the delivery of the first aircraft in 2024 will suit everyone.”

Kommersant’s sources have been talking about the high probability of a transfer since the spring, linking the situation with a revision of the PD-8 test schedule (see Kommersant on September 13).

Certification of the engine was initially planned for the end of 2024, but in March 2022, the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov set the task of completing it “in the next 12–14 months,” that is, by the summer of 2023.

In July 2023, Yakovlev showed a presentation in which the transfer of the SJ 100 to Aeroflot was scheduled for the third quarter of 2024, but later called this a “technical error.” In September, at the VEF, Aeroflot and Aviacapital-Service (Rostec’s lessor) signed a firm contract for 18 MC-21-310 aircraft and 34 SJ 100 aircraft. Then the head of the airline, Sergei Aleksandrovsky, said that the delivery of the first two SJ 100 -still expected at the end of 2023. Aeroflot declined to comment.

Kommersant sent inquiries to Yakovlev, the engine manufacturer ODK, and Rostec. The state corporation’s consolidated response states that the aircraft “can be transferred to the customer only when there is confidence in the safety and reliability of all systems.” “There can be no compromises here, and if during the work we see that additional testing or modification of some components is required, all this is done,” Rostec emphasized. Possible adjustments to timing within a few months, they noted, “should not be regarded as critical.”

Now experts are “focused on conducting a full range of tests,” Rostec clarified. They separately noted the importance of flight tests of the PD-8: “This is the most complex technical system on the new aircraft, tens of thousands of people are involved in the work on it, and it is being created in an extremely short time.” At the same time, “painstaking work on quality is not traded for time,” although “every effort is made to ensure the correct execution of these two parameters.”

The Ministry of Industry and Trade told Kommersant that their specialists “are in constant interaction with enterprises,” agreeing with “Rostec’s arguments about the priority of ensuring the unconditional safety of aircraft operation over any other factors.”

In the global aircraft industry over the past decades, not a single project related to commercial aircraft and new engines has been implemented on time, says the head of AviaPort, Oleg Panteleev. Despite its external similarity to the SSJ 100, “the scope of modifications to the SJ 100 is colossal, and the associated technical risks at the initial stage are also very large, and they cannot be passed on to the operator.” He added that the reliability of forecasts on timing also depends on officials, who “form an extremely optimistic picture for reports to the top.”

Rossiya, part of Aeroflot, the largest operator of the SSJ 100 (78 aircraft), does not foresee a shortage of its fleet, Oleg Panteleev clarifies: “It is much more important that new aircraft are not plagued by failures.” The volume of the aircraft fleet in the Russian Federation today exceeds the demand for transportation, agrees the editor-in-chief of the Avia.ru portal Roman Gusarov: in 2023, the Aeroflot group is expected to transport 19% fewer passengers than in pre-Covid 2019. He noted the problems that Western manufacturers had due to the rush to bring new equipment to the market: for example, the Airbus 320neo was “compromised by an unfinished Pratt & Whitney engine” (see “Kommersant” on October 11), and Boeing “did not go deeper into reworking MAX model, which resulted in two plane crashes.”

Aigul Abdullina