The supply of used cars is beginning to outpace demand

Demand on the used car market in October did not recover to the level of the summer months; sales remained approximately at the level of September. In November, the situation is unlikely to improve: after another increase in the Central Bank rate, dealers are seeing a decrease in interest in buying cars and are even talking about the possibility of sales. Against the backdrop of an increase in supply, the average cost of used cars stopped growing.

The used car market has stabilized. The dynamics of demand in the secondary segment in October did not undergo significant changes: there is stable interest from buyers, similar to the level in September, notes Nikolai Baskakov, director of Avilon Used Cars. Other dealers are even seeing signs of slowing demand. “October to September – minus 3% in sales,” says Alexander Istomin, director of Rolf North-West and Rolf Dmitrovka.

According to Autostat, 512 thousand used passenger cars were sold in October, which is a symbolic 0.5% more than in September. In September, sales fell by 7.6% compared to August against the backdrop of the previous increase in the Central Bank rate (see Kommersant on October 11). The used car market is more stable and rarely undergoes sudden changes in the volume of transactions in the absence of external force majeure, explains Alexander Istomin. He expects that demand will begin to grow from mid-November: “The period of waiting for additional price adjustments due to changed exchange rates has already ended.”

Managing Director of Avito Auto Kirill Votyakov notes that “fluctuations in demand dynamics are quite typical for the autumn season.” At the same time, in his opinion, the general level of interest in purchasing used cars remains high. In the first weeks of November, the number of advertisements in the segment increased by 4.3% compared to October, clarifies Mr. Votyakov. However, he admits that demand in the Russian Federation as a whole in partial November decreased by 5.5% compared to the beginning of October.

Vladimir Zholobov, director of sales of used cars at Avtodom and Autospetscenter, claims that demand was growing until the Central Bank’s new key rate increase on October 27: “After the key rate increase, the market leaves much to be desired. The situation is complicated. Dealers are cutting prices on used cars and making interesting offers to customers to boost demand. However, citizens react to price offers much worse than, for example, in May-June.” The holding even began selling cars imported through parallel imports in order to “avoid conspiracy.” In November, customers became less likely to purchase used cars using borrowed funds, adds Maxim Solodovnik, director of used cars at Fresh.

The number of loans issued decreased by 5% compared to October due to an increase in the key rate. Mr. Solodovnik, however, expects a surge by the beginning of December, noting that “the last quarter of the year is traditionally the best in terms of volumes of cars sold and profitability.”

In general, prices for used cars, which have been rising steadily since April, began to stabilize in October, according to a number of dealers. According to Autostat, since the beginning of the year, the average cost of a car has increased by 15.4%, to 1.52 million rubles. Now the increased supply is putting pressure on prices, says Alexander Istomin: compared to September, they have decreased by an average of 3%, although for some brands and models they may continue to rise. At the same time, at Avito Auto in September the average cost of a used car was 986 thousand rubles, and in October it was already 1.1 million rubles. Avto.ru says that the price of cars under 15 years old increased by 2.3%, exceeding 2 million rubles. Avto.ru also talks about an increase in the share of advertisements with prices starting from 3 million rubles. (from 11.7% to 18.5%), resulting in an upward trend in the average price. Share of ads in the segment up to 800 thousand rubles. over the year fell to 37% (by 11 percentage points).

The price of Chinese used cars increased in October by 10% compared to September, they say in Droma, while in the market as a whole it increased by 2%. Sergei Lagurev, an analyst at the Drom auto portal, explains the situation by an increase in the supply of more expensive Chinese used cars.

Meanwhile, Nikolai Timofeev, director of sales of used cars at BorisHof, clarifies that in the market as a whole, demand is being redistributed in favor of cheaper cars. According to the expert, the current stabilization will not last long and prices will return to obvious growth.

Olga Nikitina