The State Reserves Commission assessed Russia’s potential for CO2 storage

Russia has a large potential for carbon dioxide storage, with CO2 storage estimated at no less than 4.6 gigatonnes (Gt). This assessment was given on August 28 by the head of the State Commission for Mineral Reserves, Igor Shpurov.

“This is a huge amount that can allow us not only to utilize our own CO2 emissions, but also to help our partner countries use our resources for commercial purposes, including for our Asian partners,” Shpurov said (quoted by Interfax) .

The head of the commission also urged companies to talk not about the utilization and disposal of CO2, but about the CCUS system (capture, storage and use of carbon) – that is, about its storage with prospects for further application in industry.

Now in Russia, about 10 new projects for the capture and disposal of carbon dioxide (carbon capture and storage technology, CCS) are under study, previously reported to Vedomosti in the Ministry of Energy (see publication dated October 24, 2022). Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, Lukoil, Novatek, Eurochem, Severstal and other Russian companies from various sectors have previously announced plans to implement such projects on the horizon until 2030.

A representative of Severstal told Vedomosti that, according to the company’s decarbonization strategy, by 2030 it plans to reduce CO2 emissions by 10%, and by 2050-2060. – by 40–60%. To this end, the metallurgical holding intends to increase energy efficiency and modernize equipment, improve iron and steel production technologies, etc. The company also plans to implement a project in the Vologda Oblast to irrigate previously drained swamps. The revived swamps will “capture” up to 12 million tons of carbon dioxide per year, or almost half of the emissions of the Cherepovets Metallurgical Plant.

The representative of Norilsk Nickel said that in order to reduce the carbon footprint, the company annually increases the energy efficiency of production, as well as the share of energy from renewable sources: in 2022 it increased by 4 percentage points compared to 2021 to 51%. Under the baseline scenario, UC Rusal plans to reduce specific CO2 emissions from production by at least 25% by 2032 and by at least 47% by 2050, a company representative said.

Uralchem ​​does not yet have targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions until 2050. But the company, according to its representative, “is actively analyzing the possibilities for reducing them, including the possibility of using CCUS technologies.” They also recalled the gradual tightening of national and international legislation in the field of carbon regulation, in particular, the experiment on Sakhalin, within which penalties have already been determined for exceeding greenhouse gas emission quotas.

CCS and CCUS technologies reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere in order to reduce the greenhouse effect and stop global warming. Similar projects are being actively implemented abroad. In the fall of 2021, the Russian authorities approved a low-carbon development strategy until 2050, which provides for a reduction in CO2 emissions by 60% compared to 2019 (then it was 1.58 billion tons of CO2-equivalent). By 2060, Russia expects to achieve carbon neutrality, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in October of the same year. After the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions due to the SVO in Ukraine, the Russian authorities will revise the plan for the strategy of low-carbon development of Russia until 2050, Ilya Torosov, First Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, told RBC in February this year.

Work on the creation of climate regulation in Russia has been going on for many years (in 2016, the Russian Federation signed the Paris climate agreement, which regulates measures to reduce the CO2 content in the atmosphere). It intensified significantly after the European Commission presented the EU Green Deal in July 2021. It assumes a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere by 55% by 2023 compared to the level of 1990, including through the introduction of a cross-border carbon tax on imports of carbon-intensive products to the EU countries. It is expected that this tax will begin to be collected from January 1, 2026, it will concern the supply of steel, pipes, cement, aluminum, fertilizers and electricity to the European Union (EU). The Ministry of Economic Development in 2021 estimated the annual losses from such a tax for exporters of these products at $7.6 billion.

But after the start of the NWO in Ukraine in the spring of 2022, the EU imposed an embargo on the supply of steel, pipes, fertilizers and cement from Russia, while Finland and the Baltic countries voluntarily refused to import Russian electricity. As a result, the threat of introducing a cross-border tax against Russian exporters has naturally ceased to be relevant, or at least has become much less sensitive. As a result of the partial loss of the European export market, domestic companies began to redirect exports of products, including carbon-intensive ones, from the West to the East. In particular, China and India accounted for the bulk of oil exports in 2022. Oil exports from Russia to China increased by 28% to 89 million tons, to India – 19 times to 41 million tons, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reported.

In 2022, Russia also increased the export of steel semi-finished products to China by 3 times to 2.3 million tons, or up to $1.34 billion in monetary terms (Vedomosti wrote about this on January 23, 2023). Nickel supplies to China in 2022 increased by 0.2% to 44,800 tons, and in the first half of 2023 – by 32% in annual terms to 18,400 tons.

However, this does not solve the problem, since Asian markets, in particular China and India, are already introducing similar European carbon regulation systems. In addition, targets have been set to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060–2070.

For example, in China today there is a national and eight regional systems for trading CO2 emissions. Trading was launched in the summer of 2021 on the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange. Since its launch, it has sold $1.5 billion in greenhouse gas emissions allowances, China Radio International reported on July 17, 2023. India is also introducing energy efficiency mechanisms and renewable energy certificates, while China, Indonesia and Malaysia are among the first in the world to create their own green taxonomy of projects (allows you to evaluate the effectiveness and calculate the results from the introduction of green solutions in various areas).

The countries of the East do not lag behind the West in the implementation of climate programs and often rely on the experience of Europe and the United States in developing their own approaches, Natalya Stapran, director of the department of multilateral economic cooperation and special projects, told Vedomosti (see Vedomosti, November 28, 2022). Therefore, the eastern countries, according to her, “cannot be called a safe haven” where you can wait out the storm of EU and US climate initiatives.

The vast majority of Eastern countries also set long-term goals to reduce their carbon footprint, which involve increased environmental requirements, including for imported products, explains Kirill Yemelyanov, senior consultant at Vygon Consulting. Exports from Russia will be “in the mode of global competition”, so each exporting company should focus on reducing its carbon footprint, he said. At the same time, China is one of the drivers for the development of climate regulation among the Asia-Pacific countries, so the neighbors, according to Yemelyanov, will focus on it. There are prospects for the introduction of a cross-border carbon tax in China and India, but its introduction will depend on an assessment of the economic effect of such a measure in the EU, said Vladimir Lukin, partner at Kept Operational Risks and Sustainable Development Group.

Under the sanctions, climate projects will not be in the first place for Russian companies, Kirill Rodionov, an expert at the Institute for the Development of Fuel and Energy Complex Technologies, objects. If the sanctions are eased, climate projects will be primarily taken up by producers of ferrous metals, which are subject to a carbon tax in the EU, he said. State support, as well as the threat of higher taxes on products with a high carbon footprint, could speed up the implementation of such projects and increase their scale, adds B1 partner Marina Belyakova.

Russia can reduce emissions by up to 700 million tons of CO2-equivalent annually with the help of energy-efficient technologies in production, improved waste management, etc., Lukin estimated. To do this, we need to increase cooperation with companies from China, which have extensive experience in CCUS projects, adds Yemelyanov. For example, by 2050, China plans to increase its CO2 storage capacity to 1.5 Gt, while Russia’s CO2 emissions are 1.7 Gt per year.