The situation on the secondary real estate market in January 2024

The decline in sales due to rising mortgage prices has not yet led to a reduction in average prices, but has slowed down their growth: over the month, apartments on the secondary market in the largest cities have risen in price by only 1%. Buyer activity will remain restrained in January-February, which may lead to a decrease in their prices in the spring and an increase in the level of bargaining. In the future, the situation in the secondary market will largely depend on the policy regarding the key rate of the Central Bank.

The average cost of secondary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets in Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in January amounted to 141 thousand rubles. per sq. m, increasing by 1% by December. Such data are cited in CIAN.Analytics, noting that the dynamics fit into the trend: price growth continues, but slows down every month. According to Etazhi’s calculations, the average cost of secondary housing in Russia as a whole increased by 0.7% per month and by 10% over the year, to 121.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Avito Real Estate adds that the average cost of a lot on the secondary market of the largest cities is now 5.15 million rubles. Compared to December, the value increased by 1%, and January of last year – by 14.4%.

The most pronounced dynamics of average prices in the secondary market for the month, experts from CIAN.Analysts noted in Krasnodar: the figure increased by 2%, to 131.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In “Etazhi” we noticed an increase in the average price In Nizhniy Novgorod by 3.2%, to 136.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. The dynamics may be dictated by a decrease in supply: over the year, the number of lots on the secondary market of Nizhny Novgorod decreased by 31%, as calculated by Yandex Real Estate.

In Kazan the situation is the opposite, exposure increased by 2.3 times. “This may be due to the commissioning of a large volume of new buildings and their transition to the category of secondary real estate,” says Alexey Mukhanov, head of the Yandex Real Estate analytics service. The average cost of “resale” in Kazan, according to CIAN.Analytics, increased by 1% over the month, to 171.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In St. Petersburg the indicator increased by only 0.4%, to 218.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

According to calculations by the Inkom-real estate company, on the secondary market “old” Moscow The average cost of housing is now 279.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Over the month, the figure increased by 0.1%, year-on-year – by 1.3%. In New Moscow — dynamics of 0.2% and 1.1%, respectively, to 205.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In outskirts of Moscow the average indicator remains stable, showing an increase of 0.2% per month and 2.1% per year, to 141.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

“There will be no downward movements as long as the supply shortage remains,” states Sergei Shloma, director of the secondary market department at Inkom-Real Estate.

The exhibition, in his opinion, has not yet begun to grow after last year’s rush, although in January demand decreased by 30–40%. Alexey Mukhanov says that the number of lots in Moscow decreased by 4% over the month, and by 10% over the year. But the dynamics are largely dictated by the erosion of budget proposals.

The head of the primary direction of Avito Real Estate, Dmitry Alekseev, says that in general in Russia, the demand for secondary housing decreased by 35.4% over the month, and by 25.5% in annual terms. The expert attributes the trend to both low activity due to the past New Year holidays and the increased cost of lending. Director of Etazhi Ildar Khusainov says that the average approved rates for finished housing are close to 17%. Such loans are relevant only in cases where the amount involved is insignificant, he says. To this factor, according to the expert, is added the complicated sale of existing real estate and the flow of demand into the segment of new buildings.

According to Sergei Shloma, the market has just entered a new, adaptive phase. “While everyone is slightly shocked by the high key rate, no one can understand how this will work, and applications for mortgages on market conditions have gone from massive to sporadic,” says the expert.

The decreased demand, according to Mr. Mukhanov, gradually began to lead to price stabilization: “Since the beginning of the year, owners often have to go for a discount.”

Etazhi estimates the average discount at 4.1%. This is far from the record figures of the second half of 2022, when the figure reached 5.9%, notes Mr. Khusainov.

The head of CIAN.Analytics, Alexey Popov, believes that the number of transactions on the secondary market will continue to decline in January-February, but is unlikely to fall below the base level. The latter is largely determined by the natural and migration movement of the population, and both of these processes are quite active, he notes. But the expert expects price reductions in response to reduced demand only in February-March. Sergei Shloma believes that the further picture on the secondary market depends entirely on the dynamics of the key rate. It will fall – demand on the market will remain at a high level – it will drop noticeably, along with average prices.

“The price will fall to the level until the market perceives it as fair. Thus, in the period from 2015 to 2018, prices fell by 40%, losing 10% per year,” the expert recalls.

Although Alexey Mukhanov does not yet see any reason to significantly reduce prices. “Some of the apartments that don’t find a buyer will probably simply leave the market or go into the rental segment, which has risen noticeably in price over the past year,” he argues. But Ildar Khusainov notes that there will be properties on the market whose owners are interested in urgent sale. Transactions with them, according to the expert, will be supported through an increase in the level of trading.

Alexandra Mertsalova