The situation on the rental housing market in January 2024

After a period of rising prices in the segment of long-term rental housing in the country’s largest regional markets, there has been a cooling. Following a reduction in demand and an increase in supply, average rates decreased by 1%. The market is being held back from the pronounced dynamics by the decrease in the availability of mortgages: rising loans have forced potential buyers to postpone transactions and continue renting housing. Demand is concentrated on inexpensive lots on the outskirts, leading to the washing out of the most budget proposals. Against this background, analysts do not yet see prerequisites for a noticeable reduction in prices in the future.

The average cost of renting one-room apartments in the 18 largest regional markets in Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) at the end of January amounted to 27.2 thousand rubles. per month, two-room apartments – 39.9 thousand rubles. Both indicators decreased by 1% over the month, as calculated by CIAN.Analyst.

The dynamics, according to experts, fit into the standard seasonal trend: after a period of high demand, the situation will stabilize.

In Avito Real Estate, the average cost of a rental lot in Russia as a whole is estimated at 28 thousand rubles. per month. By December the figure had not changed, but by January last year it increased by 7.7%. Although cooling has not yet been detected in “Etazhi”. In the 16 largest cities, the average cost of renting one-room apartments, according to their calculations, is now 25.8 thousand rubles. per month, two-room apartments – 31.4 thousand rubles. Over the month, the values ​​increased by 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively.

The most pronounced decline in prices for the month, according to calculations by CIAN.Analytics, was in Volgograd: the average cost of one-room apartments decreased by 6%, to 19.8 thousand rubles. IN Voronezh And Yekaterinburg a similar decrease of 5%, to 18.2 thousand rubles. and 27.9 thousand rubles. per month accordingly. At the same time in Omsk, according to Etazhi estimates, the cost of renting one-room housing increased by 3.3%, amounting to 19.8 thousand rubles. per month. IN Perm — growth of 2.3%, up to 22 thousand rubles.

Average cost of rental housing in St. Petersburg, according to Yandex Real Estate, is now 52 thousand rubles. Over the month the figure decreased slightly, and over the year it increased by 24%. But the figure varies from 28 thousand rubles. per month for a studio up to 150 thousand rubles. for four-room apartments. The year-on-year growth in values ​​was 22% and 15%, respectively.

IN Moscow renting a one-room apartment, according to CIAN.Analytics, costs an average of 55.9 thousand rubles. per month. By the end of December, the value increased by 3%. Over the year, according to Oksana Polyakova, deputy director of the rental department of the Inkom-Real Estate company, one-room apartments have risen most noticeably in price in the Central Administrative District – by 26.4%, to 69.5 thousand rubles. per month. The most restrained dynamics can be seen in CJSC – an increase of 16%, to 49.9 thousand rubles. The lowest average rate is noted in the Eastern Administrative District – 39.9 thousand rubles, year-on-year the value increased by 18.4%.

Ms. Polyakova notes that the activity of tenants in January was 15% higher than the same period last year, linking this with the appearance of new offers on display. “Affordable apartments have gradually begun to appear on the market, and they are immediately rented out,” she notes.

Olga Pavlinova, director of the Etazhey rental department, believes that the picture on the long-term rental market is now determined by the reduced availability of mortgages for finished housing: buyers often decide to postpone transactions or reorient themselves to the primary market.

The head of CIAN.Analytics, Alexey Popov, notes that payments on bank loans are now on average twice the cost of rent.

Remaining in the rental market, unsuccessful buyers, according to Ms. Pavlinova, make a choice in favor of the most affordable housing options, trying to maintain the opportunity to save money for a future transaction. This holds down average prices, especially in the outskirts. The expert believes that it is now easier for potential tenants to negotiate a 3-5% discount when choosing housing in the central parts of cities, where rates are a priori higher.

Although the head of the long-term rental category of Avito Real Estate, Konstantin Kamenev, notes that a seasonal trend in the market can still be traced. In January, tenant activity was 19.7% lower than in December, although it increased by 16.1% year-on-year.

The activity of potential tenants also does not hinder the restoration of supply, says Ms. Pavlinova. Due to the increase in the average duration of exposure, owners began to rent out their properties in parallel with the sale. Oksana Polyakova notes that in Moscow the volume of supply increased by 12.8% over the month, although the choice on the market still remains limited. Mr. Kamenev says that in total, 30.8% fewer apartments are being rented in the largest cities than a year earlier.

Olga Pavlinova expects a further increase in rental rates in the short term due to the continued activity of tenants and the erosion of budget lots. “But closer to April-May another “price overheat” may occur, and then stagnation of rates cannot be avoided,” she argues. Konstantin Kamenev does not yet see the prerequisites for reducing demand and prices in the rental market. Alexey Popov makes a similar forecast, counting on a further increase in rental costs at least in Moscow and St. Petersburg – cities whose markets were hit the hardest by the tightening of conditions for mortgage programs.

Alexandra Mertsalova