the share of electric vehicles on the Russian market will reach 25% in 2035
[ad_1]
In 2035, the share of electric vehicles in the Russian market will reach 25%, B1 expects. This share of domestic sales has now been achieved by segment leader China, and other analysts believe that Russia could reach this figure even faster given the development of technology in recent years. At the same time, the industry does not share B1’s optimistic forecasts regarding the export potential of Russian electric vehicles.
Sales of electric vehicles in the Russian Federation will reach 220 thousand units by 2030, reaching a market share of 12%, according to forecast B1. In 2035, sales in the optimistic scenario will reach the level of 483 thousand electric vehicles – this is 25% of the market. For comparison: electric cars have approximately the same share now in China, which leads in the number of electric cars in the domestic market.
At the same time, until 2030 the market will grow at a limited pace, B1 expects.
Thus, for 2025, analysts project sales of only 16 thousand electric vehicles, with a forecast for 2023 of 12–13 thousand units.
The Autostat forecast also assumes that the electric vehicle market will reach 12–13 thousand units by the end of the year. At the same time, a number of automakers are more optimistic: for example, Haval expects that the market for electric vehicles and hybrids could reach 20 thousand cars in 2023, and double next year (see “Kommersant” dated October 26). Based on the results of January-October, 10.5 thousand units have already been sold in the Russian Federation, Avtostat calculated (takes into account cars up to three years old that were registered for the first time in the Russian Federation). This is 1.26% of the entire market of new passenger cars in the Russian Federation. In October alone, 1.7 thousand electric vehicles were sold, the share of sales was 1.5%.
Automotive expert Vladimir Bespalov notes that in the Russian Federation we can expect an even faster achievement of a 25% market share due to the relatively late start: “Technologies have improved in recent years, the cost of ownership has been reduced, so the transition has become more attractive.” However, he points out the importance of infrastructure development for market growth.
B1 explains that the market may exceed forecast in the coming years, but a set of “uncertain factors” is preventing stronger growth.
This includes, among other things, the need to provide a sufficient number of charging stations with a relatively inexpensive cost of refueling, since fast charging stations do not yet provide an advantage in the cost of ownership compared to ICE vehicles.
However, sales of electric vehicles will continue to grow, B1 expects, and the role of local production in the market will grow. Among the factors for implementing the optimistic scenario in B1 are state support for the purchase of electric vehicles, infrastructure development and localization, including batteries, the reduction in the cost of which as the most expensive component helps to reduce the cost of electric cars. In addition, analysts point to the impact on the speed of transition of the CO2 reduction goals of the Russian government and large companies, as well as the plans of a number of automakers, including Chinese, to stop producing cars with internal combustion engines.
Production forecasts in the optimistic scenario suggest that in 2030, 217 thousand electric vehicles will be produced in the Russian Federation, and in 2035, production volumes will even exceed the market for such cars in the Russian Federation, reaching 506 thousand cars.
B1 analysts explained to Kommersant that the production volume takes into account exports, the significance of which will depend on the volume of markets available to Russian automakers.
Vladimir Bespalov notes that the emphasis of Russian automakers will certainly shift towards electric vehicles, “because trying to recreate an internal combustion engine at the level of the world’s best analogues is difficult and capital-intensive, but for electric cars it is easier to reduce the technological gap.” The role of imports in sales will decrease as production by domestic and Chinese manufacturers in the Russian Federation develops, he agrees. But it’s too early to talk about export potential, the expert believes. He points out that all previous export strategies turned out to be too ambitious in practice and, nevertheless, the domestic market will be predominantly saturated.
[ad_2]
Source link