The semi-trailer market has reached a sales record of 40 thousand units in 2023

The semi-trailer market reached a new historical record in 2023, reaching about 40 thousand units, its participants state. Although in recent months demand has begun to slow down slightly amid an increase in the Central Bank rate, the need for carriers to renew their fleet is still high: there is a shortage on the market and long waiting times. Domestic producers, who already have more than 70% of the market, continue to increase their capacity.

Sales of domestic semi-trailers in January-October increased by 51.6%, to 17.26 thousand units, Rosspetsmash calculated (combines data for 70% of production volume). The output of Russian factories over the same period increased by 44%, to 17.6 thousand units. The share of Russian manufacturers in the market is 79%, the association says, noting the positive effect of increasing recycling collection, but pointing to “aggressive imports from foreign players.” They consider it necessary to “further develop measures to protect the market.” The entire semi-trailer market, according to the NAPI agency, grew by 52.6% in ten months, to 34.3 thousand units. The leader is the domestic Tonar (share – 19.2%). In October, sales of semi-trailers began to decline in monthly terms for the first time since May, showing a drop of 0.5%, the agency estimated. There are also negative dynamics in the market for truck tractors: their sales have been falling month by month since September.

Tonar General Director Denis Krivtsov says that “the increase in the Central Bank rate and leasing costs, of course, cannot but affect sales.” But, he notes, the plant is now selling equipment ordered a year ago and is accepting orders for 2025: “If retail sales drop sharply, the queue may be revised. Some kind of market correction is overdue; it cannot constantly double.”

“There is a shortage of semi-trailer equipment on the market, and prices for them are rising significantly. Since February 2022, the cost of new trailers has almost doubled,” says Sanjar Ashuraliev, general director of the transport company Delko. He notes that to stimulate sales, tractor manufacturers are reducing prices: “There is no such trend for trailed vehicles yet, which is why many large carriers have suspended updating their trailer fleet.” In 2024, the company plans to purchase tents and refrigerated semi-trailers. Director for procurement of transport services at FM Logistic in Russia, Eduard Mironov, says that 2023 showed a significant increase in sales of not only tractors, but also semi-trailers. “However, if many distributors now have Chinese tractors in stock, the wait for the delivery of semi-trailers is still from two to six months,” he says. “This applies to a greater extent to isothermal semi-trailers with refrigeration units.” Over the past two and a half years, the increase in the cost of a tilt semi-trailer has exceeded 90%, and an isothermal semi-trailer with refurbishment – 65%, he continues, and this “forces transport companies to increase the service life of equipment and the period of its leasing, use semi-trailers more carefully, and carry out their maintenance more thoroughly ” In general, the need to update the semi-trailer fleet will not decrease, he concludes.

Denis Krivtsov recalls that in 2023 the semi-trailer market will reach a record 48 thousand units, which is almost twice as much as in 2022. “These are unprecedented numbers. At the same time, the shortage of supply, including in the refrigerator segment, persisted. Next year the market will be balanced due to the increase in domestic capacity,” says Mr. Krivtsov. Imports, he believes, are relevant only as long as there is a lack of local capacity, but it is too early to increase recycling collection.

Dmitry Babansky from SBS Consulting notes that now, despite the need to update the fleet, sales of semi-trailers will slow down due to worsening lending conditions. In 2024, according to the analyst, the market may remain at the level of the current year, which is already a record, or decline slightly. Prior to this, the semi-trailer market was at its peak in 2021 – 33.7 thousand units.

The general director of the Spetsavtoprom association, Denis Kudryavtsev, believes that the market for new semi-trailers in 2023 could reach 38–40 thousand units, which would still be a record. He notes that the maximum production capacity in the Russian Federation is now 3–4 thousand per month, imports amount to no more than 1 thousand units. “Demand still exceeds supply, and there are problems with components and delays in delivery times for truck tractors,” the expert states. The shortage and main demand is for curtain side semi-trailers, refrigerated trucks and container ships. The effect of the increase in the key rate affects small players who have already “experienced refusals or deferrals of orders.”

The slowdown in the semi-trailer market will be less significant than in the truck segment, says Anton Pavlovsky, BWG Deputy General Director for Business Development. “Customers are ready to wait up to six months for refrigerators, since their sales volume has still not reached the level of 2021,” he notes. Despite the fact that the growth of the truck market has significantly slowed down, semi-trailers are still in demand, agrees Artur Soldatkin, executive director of Stork LLC (the official representative of Dayun in the Russian Federation), but he believes that the market will be saturated by the middle of next year.

Olga Nikitina