The ruble was waiting for expensive oil – Newspaper Kommersant No. 25 (7470) of 02.10.

For the first time since April last year, the exchange rate of the dollar closed at the level of 73 rubles/$. Multi-month highs updated the euro and yuan. The bearish game against the Russian currency is being played by market participants against the backdrop of seasonally low activity of exporters, as well as expectations of a fall in foreign exchange earnings due to restrictive measures against Russian oil and oil products. Under the current conditions, analysts do not rule out a rise in the dollar rate in the coming days to 75 rubles/$.

On Thursday, February 9, the dollar exchange rate at the morning session of the Moscow Exchange after a ten-month break rose above the level of 73 rubles/$. During trading, it reached the level of 73.38 rubles / $, the maximum since April 27, 2022. This result is 1.18 rubles. exceeded the closing value of the environment. As a result of trading, the rate stopped at the level of 73 rubles / $, the highest mark at the close of trading since April 26 last year. The exchange rate of the European currency rose by 1.24 rubles per day, to 78.63 rubles / €, also the maximum since April 26, 2022. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan, which reached 10.77 rubles / CNY, also updated a ten-month high. Since the beginning of the week, currencies have grown by 2.2-3.5%.

The rise of the US and Chinese currencies takes place at a rather high activity, which is unusual for the beginning of the month, when sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters are minimal.

The volume of trading in dollars with delivery “tomorrow” exceeded 85 billion rubles, which is 10% higher than the result of the previous day and the maximum value since January 16. With the yuan, the volume of trading amounted to almost 67.5 billion rubles, which is comparable to Wednesday, but 17% higher than the values ​​at the beginning of the week.

The weakening of the ruble is due to the seasonally low activity of exporters in the market, as well as expectations of a decrease in foreign exchange receipts against the backdrop of sanctions. From December 5, 2022, restrictions on the supply of Russian crude oil to Europe began to operate, and from February 5, in relation to petroleum products. “As with the sanctions on crude oil, restrictions on Russian oil products are likely to make international trade in Russian oil products less transparent. Part of the margin will pass from the manufacturer to intermediaries, and therefore part of the currency will remain outside the country,” Mikhail Vasilyev notes. These are fundamental factors that, in the conditions of maintaining control over the movement of capital, are decisive for the exchange rates of the Russian currency, reminds Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.

Confirmation of the reduction in the country’s oil and gas revenues in January was the data of the Ministry of Finance on the growth of the budget deficit in January to 1.8 trillion rubles. The agency pointed to a 46% year-on-year decline in budget oil and gas revenues in January.

According to the ministry, the average price of Urals oil in January was only $49.5 per barrel, as a result, the discount to Brent increased to $35 (41%). “The weakening of the ruble is one of the ways to increase budget revenues and improve the situation due to a more favorable exchange rate for exporters. At least this allows us to solve some budget problems in the short term, but in the long term, a weak ruble still leads to an increase in budget expenditures due to an increase in public debt financing and inflation indexation,” says Mikhail Shulgin, head of the global research department at Otkritie Investments.

According to analysts, exports are currently adapting to the EU restrictions on oil and oil products. This process, according to Vladimir Evstifeev, will be gradual and take months, but the main part of the redirection of external supplies to the east may come sooner. “The speed of redirecting supplies is the main condition under which the ruble exchange rate will stabilize and be able to win back part of the losses,” he notes. According to Mikhail Shulgin, taxation of the oil industry will be adjusted in the coming weeks, since the prices of Urals formed by the Argus agency are unrepresentative (see “Kommersant” dated February 7). As a result, revenues to the budget from oil and gas revenues may grow.

Under the current conditions, market participants expect further weakening of the Russian currency.

According to Vladimir Evstifeev, in the short term the dollar will move towards the level of 75 rubles/$. According to Mikhail Vasiliev, in the coming weeks it will be in the range of 72–75 rubles/$. “The weakening of the ruble and the risks of its further decline will be one of the important factors at the meeting of the Bank of Russia this Friday. The Central Bank is likely to keep the key rate at 7.5%, but will signal the need to raise the rate later this year,” notes Mr. Vasiliev.

Vitaly Gaidaev