The ruble sank after oil

In the first trading week of 2023, the ruble significantly weakened its position against the leading world currencies. In four days, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange rose by 2.2 rubles to 72.12 rubles/$. In the absence of most liquidity, the movement of the exchange rate was determined by the negative dynamics of oil and gas prices. With the return of exporters to the auction with foreign exchange earnings, analysts do not exclude the return of the dollar to 70 rubles / $.

Market participants failed to maintain the trend of the last day of last year to strengthen the ruble, and in the first trading week of 2023, the rates of the world’s leading currencies quickly returned to the maximum values ​​of December. On Friday, January 6, the dollar exchange rate approached 72.5 rubles/$ and closed at 72.12 rubles/$, up 2.2 rubles. above the close of trading on December 30. The exchange rate of the European currency for four trading days increased by 1.87 rubles to 76.17 rubles/€. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan has grown most strongly, which has added 5.3% since the beginning of the year, to 10.44 rubles / CNY, having updated the maximum since May 11, 2022.

The weakening of the ruble took place at low activity of market participants.

According to Kommersant’s estimate, based on data from the Moscow Exchange, over four trading days the total volume of trading in major currencies (dollar, euro, yuan and others) with delivery “tomorrow” amounted to only 122 billion rubles.

This is two to three times lower than the daily trading volume in the last week of the past year.

Mikhail Shulgin, head of the global research department at Otkritie Investments, notes that activity and volumes in yuan trading were higher than in dollar and euro trading. “The yuan bulls are betting not only on a comprehensive global weakening of the dollar against major currencies, but also on domestic factors for the strengthening of the yuan: liquidity injections from the People’s Bank of China and measures to support the Chinese real estate sector amid Beijing’s abandonment of the policy of zero tolerance for COVID -19,” notes Mr. Shulgin.

Traditionally, the beginning of January is a sluggish period in the Russian financial market, as official January holidays fall on it. “The main players take a rest, take a week off before or after the holiday week. There are few participants in the auction, the market is thin, and it can be moved in any direction, ”says Alexander Tsyganov, director of the investment and corporate business department at Tsifra Broker. The exception was the beginning of 2022, when, against the backdrop of protests in Kazakhstan, the volume of currency trading on the Moscow Exchange reached 120-360 billion rubles. in a day.

In 2023, despite the fears of market participants, the geopolitical situation did not worsen, so the rates returned to the levels of the end of the year amid falling energy prices.

Since the beginning of the year, the cost of North Sea Brent oil has fallen by almost 9%, to $78.3 per barrel, the price of gas at the main European hub TTF has fallen by almost 10%, to $780 per 1,000 cubic meters. This is facilitated by recession expectations in Europe, as well as warm weather in the region.

In addition, the latest data on the US labor market for December became a trigger for further tightening of monetary policy in the country, which could negatively affect oil demand, said Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikacapital. “In addition to the decline in energy prices, the ruble continues to be dominated by uncertainty associated with a contraction in the volume of exports of raw materials due to the action of Western sanctions,” said Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS Mir Investments.

At the same time, in the coming days, experts expect a recovery in the activity of bidders and a short strengthening of the ruble.

According to Evgeny Loktyukhov, head of the economic and sectoral analysis department at the PSB, at the beginning of the new week, the activation of exporters will allow the ruble to win back losses and the dollar exchange rate will return to the level of 70 rubles / $. In the future, says Maksim Timoshenko, director of the financial markets operations department at Russian Standard Bank, the exchange rate will be affected by Russia’s ability to resist prohibitive barriers to energy exports and maintain export volumes, as well as a drop in seasonal pre-holiday demand for imports of goods.

Vitaly Gaidaev