The ruble is looking for exchange rate stability – Kommersant FM
[ad_1]
The volatility of the ruble exchange rate will continue this week, despite the Central Bank’s decision to raise the key rate. This is what economists interviewed by Kommersant FM think. Last week, the situation on the foreign exchange market developed dynamically: the dollar began trading at 98 rubles, then dropped to 92 rubles, and by the end of the week rose again to 97 rubles. The key rate, which made savings in rubles more attractive on September 15, did not affect the situation in any way.
What can affect it? And when will the ruble exchange rate finally become stable? Valery Weisberg, director of the analytical department of the investment company Region, believes that the prerequisites for this have already been formed:
“Volatility will certainly continue even after the rate hike. The Central Bank sees that if it can restrain imports, it will only be at the current level. It will be quite difficult to reduce it seriously. Until we really see on the market a significant supply of export earnings, which should arrive in connection with a significant increase in oil prices in the coming weeks, there should, in theory, not be a serious change in price dynamics.
It is worth waiting until the end of September, when exporters can still more actively begin to sell proceeds to pay taxes. And this situation will be more accentuated in October, when, in addition to the traditional mineral extraction tax, oil companies will also begin to pay tax on additional income, and foreign currency sales will be forced to increase in any case for these purposes. Therefore, in the coming weeks, it seems to me that we should not expect radical changes in the foreign exchange market.
In October, we will probably see the ruble gradually becoming stronger, but this will happen smoothly.”
On September 15, Elvira Nabiullina confirmed that strengthening foreign exchange controls against the backdrop of a weak and volatile ruble is being discussed. But, according to the head of the Central Bank, this is not a measure that should influence the exchange rate. Increasing the attractiveness of the Russian currency will be more effective, rather than administrative steps.
According to the latest forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, by the end of 2023 the ruble will trade at 94 rubles. for a dollar. Alexander Isakov, chief economist for Russia at Bloomberg Economics, does not rule out even greater strengthening in the fall:
“Now we are in a situation where short-term rates are higher than long-term ones, that is, long-term OFZs are at a level of about 12%. At the current key rate of 13%, there is a negative slope of 1 percentage point – this is a fairly large constraint on bank lending.
It was consumer, mortgage, and corporate loans that weakened the exchange rate over the past few months due to increased imports and capital outflow. I think that now we will see a cooling in lending and a strengthening of the exchange rate against the backdrop of falling imports. This week, I think, we can count on the ruble strengthening to 94-95 rubles. for a dollar.
A fair exchange rate is somewhere around 90 rubles. for a dollar. The budget discussion, which will begin in early October, will also help. We will see a draft budget for the next three years, and the deficit for 2024 will be well below expectations – around zero for next year. This will also support the ruble.
Where do such positive expectations regarding the budget deficit come from? The first is to cancel the damper. It will add almost 100 billion rubles. monthly income is 1.2 trillion rubles. in year. The second is a significantly weaker rate than was included in the draft 2022 budget. It will also give a little less, probably 1 trillion rubles. additional income.
The combination of a lower damper, a weak exchange rate and a higher oil price could give us a budget that is even slightly surplus.”
On Friday, Elvira Nabiullina said that a return to 4% inflation would require a long period of tight monetary policy and high rates. Meanwhile, the entrepreneurs with whom Kommersant FM spoke are already abandoning new projects due to too expensive loans.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
[ad_2]
Source link
