The restructuring of logistics and the development of online retail have shifted the focus of warehouse market development to the regions

The restructuring of logistics and the development of online retail have shifted the focus of warehouse market development to the regions. The provision of space in Omsk, Yekaterinburg and Krasnodar has increased by 26–59% over two years, several times higher than in Moscow. The shortage of space in the regions quickly leads to an increase in rates, which can attract developers, but launching projects here is fraught with risks due to staff shortages and the specific demand of retailers.

From the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, the supply of warehouse real estate in the Russian Federation increased by 17.1%, to 281 sq. m. m per 1 thousand people, calculated at Nikoliers. The dynamics were most pronounced in regional markets. In Krasnodar, the figure increased by 59.3%, to 708 sq. m, in Yekaterinburg – by 30%, up to 1.4 thousand sq. m. m, in Omsk – by 26.2%, up to 205 sq. m per 1 thousand people. In the largest markets, growth was less pronounced. In Moscow, according to Nikoliers, the supply of warehouses over two years increased by 14.7%, to 1.8 thousand square meters. m, in St. Petersburg – by 24.4%, to 848 sq. m.

The volume of warehouse construction in the regions has increased significantly. If before 2021, no more than 1 million sq. m. were rented outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg. m, then in 2023 the figure reached a record 1.6 million sq. m. m, says NF Group partner Konstantin Fomichenko. In 2024, in the regions, according to expert forecasts, it is planned to commission 2.8 million square meters. m of warehouses – 47% of the all-Russian figure.

Anton Alyabyev, head of the warehouse and industrial real estate department at CORE.XP, says that the total volume of transactions with regional warehouses in 2023 increased threefold, to 3.4 million square meters. m. According to him, we are also talking about new markets – Orenburg, Tyumen, Saratov. By the end of 2023, demand in developing hubs increased year-on-year by 4.5 times, notes Ekaterina Nogai, head of the research and analytics department at IBC Real Estate.

RRG Managing Partner Denis Kolokolnikov says demand is being driven by import substitution, the development of new supply chains and the growth of online trading. According to Konstantin Fomichenko, online retail in 2023 accounted for 67% of transactions with warehouses in the regions, offline retail – 25%. High demand, according to Mr. Kolokolnikov, leads to a shortage of space in regional markets, which contributes to an increase in rates and interest from developers.

As Skladman USG partner Evgeniy Numerov notes, regional markets generally have higher volatility and limited supply contributes more to the growth of rates. Although, according to him, the average profitability of projects in Moscow and the regions is the same. According to Nikoliers, in Ufa, Nizhny Novgorod and Yekaterinburg, the average rental rate for warehouses exceeds 7 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m with the national average of 5.9 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m per year.

SDEK Operations Director Alexander Khandogin says that the shortage of warehouses in the regions remains, and expects the active development of these markets in the next five years. Although Mr. Alyabyev notes that the requirements for facilities in the regions are specific. Basically, specialized premises for online trading or multi-temperature warehouses are required, but not all developers are ready to build them for rental, which accounts for the main demand, he points out. Mr. Numerov adds that when entering new markets, there may be difficulties in finding suitable sites and working with local authorities. And the investment director of PARUS Asset Management, Alexey Smerdov, points out that the regional market is less competitive, while finding good sites in Moscow and St. Petersburg is often difficult.

Polina Afanasyeva, head of the research and analytics department at CMWP, calls the wave pattern a feature of demand for online retailers, admitting that in 2024 the interest of this business will again shift to Moscow. Alexey Smerdov notes that in such conditions, it may be justified to build projects where space for the customer is combined with speculative ones, making it possible to assess the demand of local companies. Operations Director of PEC: 3PL Ivan Masalov warns that the launch of warehouses in the regions is also complicated by a lack of personnel. Companies are faced with a shortage of storekeepers, forklift drivers, warehouse site managers, etc., and vacancies take on average three times longer to fill than in Moscow, he says.

Alexandra Mertsalova