The reduction in lending was transferred to collectors – Newspaper Kommersant No. 215 (7416) dated 11/19/2022

According to the results of 2022, the size of the agency collection of overdue debts market may decrease by almost 20%, to RUB 732.2 billion. A significant decrease is also shown by the average check of agency transactions. Lenders try not to transfer large loans to collection agencies, giving old and small overdue debts to collectors. In addition, the agency collection market is already affected by a decrease in the average amounts of loans and microloans issued.

According to the National Association of Professional Collection Agencies (NAAPCA), the volume of the agency collection of overdue debts for the ten months of 2022 amounted to 605 billion rubles, the number of transactions – 18.4 million. This was announced at a specialized conference on Friday, November 18. According to Viktor Semenduev, Vice President of Creditexpress-Finance, by the end of 2022, the market volume may reach 732.2 billion rubles. Thus, the fall at the end of 2022 by 2021 will be almost 20%. The decrease also shows the average amount of recoverable debt. Thus, in the segment of bank delays offered for collection under the agency scheme, the average check over the past ten months of the year decreased by 24%, to 73.5 thousand rubles, in the microfinance segment – by 19.4%, to 23.6 thousand . rub. The number of transactions could reach 21.9 million, while in 2021 this figure was 21 million.

As NAPCA President Elman Mehdiyev explained, the decrease in the average check in the agency collection market is a natural consequence of the decrease in checks in the lending market. This is due to the fact that neither consumers nor companies had time to adapt to the new conditions after the first shock on February 24 (the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine), as the second one happened on September 21 (the announcement of partial mobilization in Russia), and the market and consumers again had to change behavior patterns, explains Mr. Mehdiyev.

Traditionally, small debts are transferred to collection agencies: credit card debts and consumer debts, says Evgeny Senkovsky, director of the department for dealing with overdue debts of Rosbank. “Accordingly, the higher the check, the less likely it is that such a loan will go to collectors. Therefore, if we are talking about a decrease in the average check, then this is a signal: firstly, large checks are simply not transferred to collectors, but a large mass with small checks is transferred; secondly, we can generally talk about the contraction of the agency market. Banks are getting better and better at segmenting customers. If earlier, for example, the 60th or 90th day of delay came on a loan and banks transferred the total mass of clients to agencies, today banks are increasingly working independently and the worst loans are transferred to collectors,” Mr. Senkovsky describes the situation in the segment.

If 2023 turns out to be relatively calm, consumer lending due to the low base in 2022 will definitely show growth, which will be transferred to agency fees, Mark Savichenko, chief analyst at Ivolga Capital, is sure. According to Viktor Semenduev’s preliminary estimates, the agency collection market could grow by 10% under such a scenario. Evgeny Novikov, head of the retail collection department at VTB, agrees that the overdue portfolio will grow in 2023. But the efficiency of recovery will decrease, he warns. The share of bankrupts in VTB’s overdue portfolio has grown since the beginning of 2022 from 1.5% to 2%. Against this background, the volume of non-core assets on the balance sheet of banks will grow: apartments (30-40%) and cars.

Polina Trifonova