The President instructed JSC Russian Railways to ensure the export of coal to the east in quota volumes

As Kommersant learned, Vladimir Putin instructed to ensure the removal of coal for export to the east in the volume of quotas that Russian Railways OJSC agreed upon with the coal-mining regions. This year, the volume of quotas increased by 6% by 2023. According to analysts, the order is related to the poor loading dynamics in January, which demonstrated, among other things, that the new planning system introduced by Russian Railways OJSC is overreacting to problems at the ports.

On February 1, Vladimir Putin instructed Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and the head of Russian Railways OJSC Oleg Belozerov to take measures to ensure the export of coal products from Kuzbass, Buryatia, Khakassia, Yakutia, Tuva and the Irkutsk region in the eastern direction in the volumes determined by agreements between Russian Railways and the heads of the constituent entities . Kommersant has the document at its disposal.

The practice of subscribing to the capacity of the Eastern range for export from coal regions dates back to 2021, when at a meeting on the development of the coal industry, the president ordered to increase coal supplies from Kuzbass to the east by 30% in three years (see Kommersant on March 2, 2020 of the year). If these goals were met, in 2024 68 million tons would have to be exported from Kuzbass to the east. Following Kuzbass, Khakassia and Buryatia, as well as Tuva received their own quotas (see “Kommersant” dated January 11, 2022). Yakutia quietly joined them, and starting this year, the Irkutsk region also has its own quota.

Transportation under quotas enjoys priority – the volumes specified in the agreements of Russian Railways with the regions receive the right to travel to the east before most other cargo. This situation, apparently, will continue within the framework of the discussed new edition of the rules of non-discriminatory access (see “Kommersant” dated November 22, 2023), although JSC Russian Railways has repeatedly called for reducing the share of coal at the Eastern site and returning coal “on instructions” to the same priority category as other export coal (see “Kommersant” dated May 15).

The volume of transportation “on orders,” however, still lags behind the initial presidential instructions. For example, in 2022, when exports from Kuzbass were supposed to increase to 58 million tons, in fact, according to the regional authorities, they amounted to 46.7 million tons. After the outbreak of hostilities and until the middle of the year, quotas did not work. In addition, coal had to give way to containers in the fall of 2022, when the ports of the Far East became overstocked.

Export volumes under agreements with the regions for 2023 were not disclosed. However, according to Kommersant, the quota for 2023 was 93.7 million tons, of which Kuzbass accounted for 53.1 million tons, Khakassia – 6.1 million tons, Tuva – 0.4 million tons, Buryatia – 8 .1 million tons, Yakutia – 26 million tons. In 2023, quota exports from Kuzbass amounted to 52.7 million tons. As the governor of the region, Sergei Tsivilev, said in an interview with TASS, 360 thousand tons were underloaded, which JSC Russian Railways plans to compensate by transporting more expensive cargo from the region.

This year, despite the reluctance of Russian Railways, the regional quota was increased by 6%. Thus, it is planned to export 54.1 million tons from Kuzbass, 26.3 million tons from Yakutia, 8.5 million tons from Buryatia, 6.5 million tons from Khakassia, 3.3 million tons from the Irkutsk region, from Tuva – 0.65 million tons. Agreements with the regions have already been concluded; Russian Railways announced this in December 2023.

The head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov, believes that the president’s order could have appeared, among other things, in connection with unexpectedly poor loading dynamics. Let us remind you that in January loading fell by 4.3% compared to last January, and coal loading decreased proportionally. JSC Russian Railways explained the decline by temperature swings in the middle zone, abnormal frosts in the North-West, storms in the ports of the Azov-Black Sea and Far Eastern basins, as well as problems with traction.

According to Mr. Burmistrov, in the context of innovations introduced by Russian Railways, such as the dynamic infrastructure loading model (DILM) in combination with the previously introduced daily customer loading plan (DCPP), the network’s response to unloading problems has become more prompt and strict, and they are immediately broadcast for loading. The level of resilience and adaptability to negative environmental factors of Russian Railways has decreased, he says. The fulfillment of daily plans and quotas is at risk. And the instruction is intended to indicate to Russian Railways that the integration of the DMZ and the SKPP should not lead to failures during loading in the face of problems with unloading associated both with the weather and with the negative impact of sanctions.

Natalya Skorlygina