The policy of the Central Bank slowed down the growth of the truck market

Sales of trucks since mid-August have declined compared to the active beginning of the month and July. The market follows the trends of the passenger car segment, where the rise in prices against the backdrop of rising salvage fees and the weakening of the ruble since the beginning of the month is already affecting sales. Participants in the truck market note that there are still cars in warehouses at the old prices, but demand is really slowing down, mainly due to the increase in the Central Bank rate and the rise in leasing prices. According to the results of August, the segment is still waiting for record sales for 20 years, but in autumn the activity will decrease.

From the weekly data of Avtostat, it follows that sales of trucks in Russia began to decline from mid-August after more than a month of steady growth. Prior to this, a week-on-week drop in sales was observed at the end of April (after the growth of the exchange rate) and at the beginning of June.

The passenger car market has also shown negative weekly dynamics since the beginning of August – demand has slowed down due to the rise in car prices after the weakening of the ruble and the growth of scrap collection. The truck market began to sag due to the same factors.

Prices for trucks increased by an average of 15%, says Ernest Pleskachev, head of FNGROUP (formerly Ferronordic) trucking. The cost of Dayun trucks has grown, confirms Arthur Soldatkin, executive director of Stork LLC (brand representative in the Russian Federation): “On average, for tractors – by 1 million rubles, for chassis – by 2.5 million rubles.”

Sales are falling due to the growth of scrap and the key rate of the Central Bank, Vladimir Zhelobov, director of sales of used cars at Avtodom and Avtospetstsentr, believes. He notes that 95% of truck purchases are made through leasing. Now, according to the top manager, there is still equipment that is sold at the old prices, so the real price increase will be more noticeable later.

BWG General Director Alexander Tsypin confirms that “a huge amount of equipment” was imported in July – more than 12,000 mainline tractors: “This is a record, such a figure usually happens in three months. As long as there is a lot of equipment, it will be actively acquired.”

Artur Soldatkin clarifies that the remains of cars in warehouses (about 45 trucks) were quickly sold out at July prices, and now customers are refusing to purchase amid rising prices. He added that about a quarter of the concluded contracts are being terminated: “Clients who are not ready for new rates and prices are reconsidering their plans. But by the end of 2023, we expect the market to recover.”

Alexander Tsypin explains that the increase in the Central Bank’s rate significantly affects the cost of financing projects for the purchase of equipment, and “now even in large companies the cost of financing will be up to 14-15% per annum.” “The main problem for the market is the high level of uncertainty. The final pricing chain is unpredictable,” he clarifies.

“With such a key rate, a rise in the cost of leasing, there will definitely be a slowdown in sales. This, in turn, can put some of the suppliers, distributors, dealers in front of a cash gap with the need to dump with all the negative consequences up to leaving the market,” notes the managing partner of AAA Truckservice (man dealer, Sitrak, Howo, JMC , Isuzu) Valery Kuzmin.

Financiers, however, are more cautious: it is difficult to assess the impact of the rate increase on the leasing market in such a short retrospective, says Maxim Kalinkin, vice president of Gazprombank, CEO of Gazprombank Leasing.

“Until the end of the year, we predict a rise in prices in these segments from 15–20% due to changes in the ruble exchange rate,” he clarifies. “Therefore, now customers often contract large volumes at old prices.”

Anatoly Aminov, Financial Director of Europlan LK, notes that clients sought to purchase the necessary vehicles before the situation on the market changes – even after the key rate increase, the number of transferred vehicles and new leasing agreements was more than a year ago. The head of VTB Leasing, Anton Musatov, confirms that in July the company concluded more deals in car leasing than in June, and in the first half of August – the same number as in the whole of June (VTB Leasing did not immediately raise rates on new agreements). At the same time, Mr. Musatov believes that in the coming months the volume of transactions will grow, as “construction and infrastructure projects are being implemented and there is a surge in business activity among logistics companies.”

KamAZ claims that so far revision of the Central Bank rate had no effect on demand: “August will be a record for the last 16 years.”

Alexander Tsypin, referring to the data of Avtostat (which includes trucks over 3.5 tons, and not just from 14 tons, like KamAZ), says that 10.5 thousand trucks were registered in the three weeks of August: “According to the results of the month, there may be a record for 20 years was set – 15,000 trucks.” Dmitry Babansky of SBS Consulting sees a slowdown in truck sales as inevitable, although so far without a decline compared to 2022.

Olga Nikitina, Polina Trifonova