The pace of opening thermal complexes is growing sharply in Russia

In an effort to occupy empty spaces in shopping centers through the entertainment component, developers and owners of such facilities have increasingly begun to invest in the creation of thermal complexes. The number of their discoveries will triple this year, remaining at a high level over the next five years. So far, the thermal baths, which cost an average of 400–500 million rubles to launch, pay for themselves in up to five years. But the market cannot rule out an oversaturation of such projects.

In Russia, the pace of opening thermal complexes will increase sharply. If in 2021–2023 seven or eight facilities were commissioned per year, then for 2024 the opening of 21 projects (more than 150 thousand sq. m.) is announced, for 2025 – 23 (over 200 thousand sq. m.), counted in NF Group. In total, according to analysts, at the end of 2023, 44 large thermal complexes with a total area of ​​296 thousand square meters were operating in the country. m. In the next five years, the number of such projects will triple, especially in the regions, predicts Marina Malakhatko, senior director of CORE.XP.

The thermal spa format has existed in Russia for about ten years – these are family entertainment and health centers with artificial water, they include different types of pools, saunas and baths. Now the surge in popularity of such objects is associated with their opening in shopping centers. If at the end of 2023 18% of thermal baths were located in shopping centers, then in 2026, according to NF Group, this figure will be 25%.

Many shopping centers have empty spaces that need to be filled faster, says Ekaterina Nogai, head of the research and analytics department at IBC Real Estate. According to her observations, the population’s need for traditional offline shopping is decreasing, and facilities are deciding to position themselves as leisure centers. Marina Malakhatko calls thermal baths a good solution for large facilities that lost up to 20% of traffic during the crisis. “The thermal baths are visited by 4 thousand people a day, peak traffic is 12 thousand people,” she explains.

Marina Malakhatko warns that not everywhere there are technical conditions for thermal baths. Ms. Nogai explains that thermal complexes often use the street part of the territory adjacent to shopping centers and require high capacity. The thermal baths create a high load on the floors in the areas where the swimming pools are located, adds Andrey Shuvalov, director of the retail real estate department at CMWP.

Partner of the Osnova Group of Companies (developing the Termoland chain), Egor Khramov, says that his company is concentrating on shopping centers that have faced a decline in traffic in recent years. Thus, in St. Petersburg in the Leto shopping center, the chain, in particular, occupied the premises of the Decathlon retailer that left Russia, he says. In 2024, according to Mr. Khramov, it is planned to open “Thermolands” in St. Petersburg, Novokuznetsk, Krasnodar, Orenburg and Krasnoyarsk.

Franshiza.ru expert Anna Rozhdestvenskaya noticed investor demand for thermal bath franchises. The creation of one complex, according to Ms. Malakhatko’s calculations, costs 400 million rubles, and annual revenue is more than 600 million rubles. NF Group partner Olga Shirokova estimates the average payback period at five years. According to her, the average area of ​​thermal complexes under construction is 5–10 thousand square meters. m. Andrey Shuvalov says that existing projects were able to pay for themselves in a record two to three years. According to Egor Khramov, the Osnova Group of Companies invests 500–900 million rubles in one Termoland, which can be returned in five years.

Andrey Shuvalov does not rule out that the thermal baths will actively develop for another five to ten years. But Ekaterina Nogai expects the saturation of such facilities in three years due to the active construction of similar facilities throughout Russia. Marina Malakhatko believes that the process will be completed when there will be one thermal complex for every 400 thousand inhabitants. Managing partner of Vanchugov and Partners, Alexey Vanchugov, does not rule out that in the wake of investment interest there will be an oversupply of such projects and some of them will turn out to be less successful. This, in his opinion, can lead to an increase in the payback period of some objects.

Alexandra Mertsalova