The mobilization of air tickets has been completed – Newspaper Kommersant No. 186 (7387) dated 10/07/2022

Tickets for foreign and border Russian destinations that have been popular in the past two weeks have fallen in price to the level of a month ago. For example, an urgent flight to Istanbul or Dubai, which, after the announcement of partial mobilization, could cost 600-700 thousand rubles, can now be found for 20 thousand and 40 thousand rubles. respectively. The airlines confirm that demand has fallen from one and a half to two times on individual flights, and the depth of booking has returned to normal levels: from a week to a month.

Prices for air tickets from Russia to popular international destinations, which jumped dozens of times after September 21, fell sharply. In a number of areas, their cost is now much lower than it was before the announcement of partial mobilization. From the beginning of the week to October 5, demand for major international destinations, according to various estimates, fell by 1.5–2 times.

Kommersant compared ticket prices on the websites of major Russian carriers with departure dates of October 8 and 14 at the time of publication relative to prices in mid-September, that is, before the announcement of mobilization. According to several sources in ticket aggregators, a flight to Dubai on September 15, with a booking depth of 1-2 days before departure, cost an average of 60-70 thousand rubles, when buying a week in advance – 56 thousand rubles. In the first days of mobilization, tickets were sold for 300-500 thousand rubles. (see Kommersant dated September 21). On October 7 and a week later, direct flights there are available from 38 thousand rubles. (Aeroflot and Flydubai).

The flight to Yerevan cost from 19 thousand rubles. per day and 14 thousand rubles. during the week. Now – an average of 11-14 thousand rubles. on October 8 and 10-12 thousand rubles. a week later. At the peak of demand, prices reached 200 thousand rubles.

Flight to Istanbul, which cost 45 thousand and 34 thousand rubles. accordingly, it is now available for 19-25 thousand rubles. on October 7 (S7, Red Wings, Azimut and Yamal), 30 thousand – on October 8 and 18-22 thousand rubles – in a week. Flights to Astana were estimated at 16,000 to 14,000 rubles. In the next two days they are available for 22-24 thousand rubles, in a week they get cheaper to 17-19 thousand rubles. with tickets without luggage.

In addition, the prices for flights to the “border” Murmansk, Omsk, Orsk and Chelyabinsk, through which the Russians traveled to Norway, Kazakhstan and Mongolia, returned to early September values. Now tickets for these destinations are in the range of 3-5 thousand rubles, and at the peak of demand they were bought for 25-50 thousand rubles. (see Kommersant dated September 28).

A Kommersant source in the top 5 airlines said that the rise in prices was mainly dictated by a shortage of capacities and empty seats on sale, since tickets abroad were actively sold out even before the announcement of mobilization. In particular, bookings for flights to the CIS countries began with the carrier on average a month before departure.

“In the first week after the mobilization, passengers literally bought up the last seats,” he said. At the same time, the fall in demand, according to him, began in the middle of last week. A Red Wings representative confirmed to Kommersant that demand for international flights declined at the end of last week. A number of airlines also told Kommersant that the depth of booking “has returned to normal” and, according to various estimates, is from a week to a month. Prices, which for many carriers at the time of peak demand were regulated manually by employees, are now again determined by dynamic pricing.

A Kommersant source in the field of business tourism noted that from the beginning of mobilization until early October, the number of corporate requests for booking tickets and charter aircraft for “companies that took away the staff with a full male staff” “grew noticeably” in the company. We are talking about employers in the IT sector that are not included in the register of the Ministry of Digital Development, the pharmaceutical industry, etc. The most popular destinations are Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and especially Armenia, says Pavel Vasin, executive director of the Union of Business Travel Agencies (SAD). He also confirmed that demand has already declined markedly.

All interlocutors note that the situation repeats the peak demand for flights from Russia after the announcement of the special operation on February 24. Some of the market participants, however, believe that the difference could be a much lower percentage of passengers who want to purchase a return ticket. “People who flew away for half a million rubles are solvent, frequent flyers, and their outflow may affect the overall passenger flow in the future,” fears one of the sources in the tourism market.

In the future, serious perturbations in the dynamics of prices are unlikely, says Oleg Panteleev, executive director of Aviaport. “If there is no deterioration in the external and domestic political situation, then seasonal factors will take over,” he says. The end of the tourist season in the popular Turkish destination will lead to some price reduction, the expert believes, which will be partly offset by the traditional winter growth in demand for Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, demand and supply in terms of capacities will be balanced in neighboring countries, Oleg Panteleev believes. It is only on lines such as Southeast Asia where a wide-body fleet is required that there is an obvious shortage of capacity, which could push prices up.

Aigul Abdullina