The Ministry of Finance stopped the aggression of investors – Kommersant

The Ministry of Finance continues to severely cut off the most aggressive bids at the OFZ auction. Based on the results of two auctions, the ministry attracted almost 64 billion rubles, which required only a symbolic premium in terms of profitability. This tactic, combined with lower inflation, made it possible to significantly reduce the cost of borrowing compared to previous placements of such securities. At the same time, corporate borrowers are also taking advantage of the improved market conditions.

On Wednesday, May 24, the Ministry of Finance placed only two issues of government bonds with a constant coupon (OFZ-PD) – with maturities in August 2029 and July 2036. The main demand, like a week earlier, fell on a shorter, seven-year issue – with a demand of 70.6 billion rubles. applications for almost 60 billion rubles were satisfied. This is the second largest result for this issue this year, more than the Ministry of Finance borrowed on this issue on April 5 (over 70 billion rubles). Demand for 13-year bonds amounted to only 12.5 billion rubles, which corresponds to the volume of the balance in which bonds were placed, of which the Ministry of Finance satisfied applications for only 4 billion rubles.

At the same time, Alexander Yermak, chief debt markets analyst at BC Region, draws attention to the fact that the yield turned out to be lower than the previous auctions, which took place in mid-April and early May, respectively, by 19 and 4 bp. The policy of the Ministry of Finance to limit the growth of rates in the OFZ market by reducing the size of premiums on yield to the secondary market and cutting off most of the aggressive bids contributes to the improvement of placement conditions. Alexander Yermak draws attention to the fact that at the auction of long securities the premium amounted to only 1 bp. etc., and as a result, 2/3 of all applications were cut off.

In addition, the rate cut became possible on the back of improving conditions in the secondary market, where since mid-April, the average market yield has declined by 9 basis points. n., and in the area of ​​4–8 years – within 12–26 b. “The main reasons for the improvement in the situation in the secondary market were the decline in inflation, which reached 2.3% in annual terms in April, and the reduction in the inflation forecast for the current year,” Mr. Yermak notes.

The successful placement of OFZ of the Ministry of Finance was not prevented by a large placement of bonds by Gazprom. The issuer collected an order book for five-year bonds in the amount of 45 billion rubles, and the coupon rate was set at 10% per annum. However, as Dmitry Monastyrshin, chief analyst at PSB, explains, large investors usually have separate limits on OFZs and corporate bonds, so there is no direct competition between these segments. “The connection is manifested through the fact that OFZs act as a benchmark and set a benchmark for corporate borrowing,” notes Mr. Monastyrshin.

The placement of OFZ for the majority of institutional investors participating in auctions is rather a kind of routine procedure for placing funds received in management into long-term portfolios, points out Vladimir Malinovsky, head of the debt market analysis department at Otkritie Investments. At the same time, placements of high-quality corporate borrowers are less frequent and arouse interest among market participants. “Such papers make it possible to optimize the current – short-term bond portfolio, given that most loans have a maturity of three years, at most five years,” notes Mr. Malinovsky.

Market participants do not rule out a further decline in yields on OFZ placements, but doubt that conditions will improve significantly for corporate securities due to their less maturity.

“Forecasts of a decrease in inflation in the medium term may help to gradually reduce the yield on long issues of government bonds, which is currently still at a relatively high level,” Vladimir Malinovsky draws attention. At the same time, rates on short OFZs will remain at the current level due to tough statements by the Central Bank, including the consideration of the issue of raising the key rate at the next meetings of the board of directors of the regulator, market participants note.

Vitaly Gaidaev