The Ministry of Eastern Development has modeled three scenarios for the development of freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route

Ambitious plans to increase cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route from 34 million to 150 million tons by 2030 are beginning to be adjusted. As Kommersant found out, the assessment of cargo traffic by 2030 prepared by the Ministry of Eastern Development provides, in addition to the optimistic scenario with traffic volumes of 244 million tons, also a basic and conservative one. In the latter case (117 million tons), we are talking about the cancellation of a number of future NOVATEK LNG projects, as well as a shift in the timing of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project reaching full capacity. Analysts consider the conservative scenario to be the most realistic, pointing, among other things, to a delay in the construction of ice-class vessels to service future cargo traffic.

The Ministry of Eastern Development has modeled three scenarios for the development of cargo traffic in the waters of the Arctic zone (including Murmansk and the Western Arctic) and the Northern Sea Route (from the Kara Gate to the Bering Strait) until 2030 with a perspective until 2035 (Kommersant has a copy of the document dated October 9). A draft report to the government, which took into account the consequences of sanctions for promising projects in the Arctic, is now being approved by the relevant ministries.

The use of the Northern Sea Route significantly reduces the delivery time of goods to the Asia-Pacific regions, but in winter, passage along the eastern part of the route is difficult. The volume of transportation along the Northern Sea Route in 2022 amounted to 34 million tons. Last year, a plan for the development of the Northern Sea Route until 2035 was approved, according to which the target cargo turnover along the route in 2024 should be 80 million tons, in 2030 – 150 million tons.

Basic scenariodeveloped by the Ministry of Eastern Development, assumes that key promising shippers – Rosneft’s Vostok Oil, as well as NOVATEK’s Arctic LNG-2, Arctic LNG-1 and Ob LNG projects – are fulfilling their plans and also not testing shortages in icebreakers and infrastructure capacity.

According to this model, cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route in 2024 will be 74 million tons, then it will grow to 224 million tons by 2030 and to 230 million tons by 2035, with up to 75% of cargo traffic coming from oil and LNG.

Vostok Oil has the greatest influence on the indicators, which in the base scenario should begin shipping 30 million tons of oil per year already in 2024, and by 2030 reach 100 million tons per year. In addition, the scenario assumes 30 million tons of transit cargo along the NSR by 2030.

IN optimistic scenario transportation along the Northern Sea Route will increase to 81 million tons by 2024, to 244 million tons by 2030, and to 288 million tons by 2035. Here, the growth is due to NOVATEK’s future projects Arctic LNG-1, Arctic LNG-3 and up to 12.3 million tons of LNG from the Yurkharovneftegaz production project, as well as projects for the development of the Syradayskoye field and the Taimyr coal basin of Roman Trotsenko’s AEON . In the Arctic zone (west of the Kara Gate Strait), cargo traffic will increase from 25 million tons in 2024 to 57 million tons in 2030 and 82 million tons in 2035. At the same time, in the Arctic zone, the canceled Gazprom project for the production of LNG at the Shtokman field in the Barents Sea is taken into account: cargo flow from this project is envisaged at the level of 17 million tons in 2028 and 50 million tons in 2035. Gazprom did not comment on this; NOVATEK did not respond to Kommersant’s request.

Conservative scenario assumes that NOVATEK, due to sanctions, will abandon the implementation of the Ob Gas Chemical Complex and Arctic LNG-1 projects, and a number of other projects, including Vostok Oil, will move to the right or their capacity will be reduced. In this scenario, cargo traffic in 2030 will be 117 million tons and 131 million tons by 2035, transit traffic will reach 38 million tons per year. Transit cargo flow along the Northern Sea Route could reach 4 million tons in 2023, and 7 million tons in 2024 due to the redirection of coal products through the Lavna terminal in the Murmansk region.

It is possible to increase transit along the NSR by 2030, according to Rosatom, given in the draft report, through bilateral agreements with foreign partners on the supply of up to 50 million tons of cargo to China, 10 million tons to South Korea, 5 million tons each to Japan, Vietnam and India, up to 3 million tons to Thailand.

It is planned that in 2024, the icebreaker group to provide navigation along the NSR will consist of eight nuclear and three non-nuclear icebreakers, in 2030 and 2035 – nine nuclear and five non-nuclear icebreakers.

As noted in the draft document, by 2035 it may be necessary to additionally strengthen the eastern sector of the NSR with three LK-60 icebreakers and another icebreaker of the Leader project. “Thus, the shortage of icebreakers by 2035 is at least four units,” the document says.

At the same time, budget funds for the construction of icebreakers in 2024–2026 have been reduced: for Leader by 6.26 billion rubles, for three LK-60s – by a total of 4.64 billion rubles. (see “Kommersant” dated October 12). This, as follows from the draft document, will not allow the commissioning of the icebreaker fleet within the contract terms, and may also lead to “failure to achieve the goal of the Year-Round Northern Sea Route initiative.” Rosatom told Kommersant that the delivery time for icebreakers is regulated by regulations of the Russian government and government contracts, “there are no changes in these documents.”

According to the head of the Gekon consulting center, Mikhail Grigoriev, the conservative scenario looks most plausible. For example, in 2024, shipments from Arctic LNG-2 are indicated at 8 million tons, but the first stage of the project will reach full capacity in the first quarter of 2024, so it makes more sense to take into account no more than 6.6 million tons. Vostok Oil, according to the conservative scenario, will ship 18 million tons in 2025, which suggests that the fields of the Vankor group will by this time be connected by pipeline to the terminal in Sever Bay. However, the expert notes, the construction of the first Arc7 ice-class tanker for this project is planned for December 2024, the second and third – for March and June 2025. These ships will not be enough to export oil even on the shortest route – to Murmansk. The 114 thousand ton Aframax series vessels being built at the Zvezda DCSS have, according to the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping, ice class Ice3 (IB) (class Arc4 – IA – indicated only for the hull), therefore, according to the rules of navigation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route, they will be able be used only from July 1 to November 15. The expert also notes the lack of information on the progress of the construction of the port fleet for Vostok Oil and the Arctic LNG-2 project, including for LNG transshipment points in Murmansk and Kamchatka.

Mikhail Grigoriev believes that the volume of transit cargo in 2024 could be at least 2 million tons, primarily oil from Murmansk and Baltic ports. “A conflict of “double counting” arises associated with the export of oil from the Novoportovskoye field to the east via the NSR from the transshipment site in Murmansk: first, the oil is taken into account in cabotage shipments to Murmansk, and then, when transported to the east, it is taken into account in exports,” says the expert. At the same time, in his opinion, the decrease in traffic volumes and their obvious orientation in a western direction will somewhat reduce the severity of the problem of icebreaker support in the coming years.

Tatiana Dyatel, Dmitry Kozlov