The market was supported by raw material producers – Newspaper Kommersant No. 218 (7419) dated 11/24/2022

The Moscow Exchange Index after a short break went up and fixed above the level of 2200 points. The recovery was influenced by optimistic forecasts for the year, news from the commodity markets, as well as expectations of dividend payments from major oil companies. Analysts do not exclude the “Christmas” rally, which will raise the index to 2400-2500 points.

On Wednesday, November 23, the Moscow Exchange index again rose above the level of 2200 points, below which it fell at the beginning of the week. As a result of trading, it reached 2211.89 points, 0.7% higher than the previous day’s close. In two days, the growth was more than 2%. The volume of trades also increased significantly, exceeding 32 billion rubles, having returned to the indicators of a week ago.

The “blue chips” — shares of Sberbank, Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft — were confidently restoring their positions, adding 0.6–1.2% in the main session. According to Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, optimistic forecasts for 2022 create a positive background for the market, assuming that GDP will fall by no more than 3% this year, and inflation by the end of the year will be no more than 12.5– 13%. In addition, Oleg Syrovatkin, Leading Analyst at Otkritie Investments Global Research Department, points out that Bloomberg’s report that the EU is discussing the possibility of fixing a price ceiling for Russian oil at $65-70 per barrel was a positive factor. This is above average market expectations, significantly higher than the cost of production in the Russian Federation and approximately corresponds to the level of current selling prices for Russian oil, taking into account the discount, he notes.

Previously, the Russian market was supported by semi-annual dividends received from Gazprom, NOVATEK, Tatneft and PhosAgro (see “Kommersant” dated October 26). Now payments are expected based on the results of nine months from four major oil companies – Rosneft, LUKOIL, Gazprom Neft, Tatneft. “Given the reduced liquidity of the Russian market, the influx of dividends from oil companies can ensure the growth of the Moscow Exchange index at the end of 2022, becoming a driver for the Christmas rally,” says Evgeny Mironyuk, an expert on the stock market at BCS World Investments.

At the same time, the growth leaders were the securities of the largest gold mining companies – shares of Polyus (+5.6%) and depositary receipts of Polymetal (+3.4%). As a result, their quotes returned to the values ​​of the third decade of September.

Gold miners are in demand amid news of large-scale purchases of Russian gold by China, said Natalia Malykh, head of the Finam shares analysis department. the day before “RIA News” citing data from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, it reported record deliveries of gold from Russia in the amount of 2.16 tons in October and 5.72 tons since the beginning of the year (in the amount of $330 million). However, according to the data RBCfor 10 months, Switzerland supplied China with precious metal worth $26.5 billion, Canada – $9.7 billion, South Africa – $7.7 billion, Australia – $7.2 billion.

The Russian stock market may receive support if expectations are maintained that the Fed will reduce the rate increase step, Mr. Syrovatkin believes. At the moment, the futures market estimates the probability of its increase at the meeting on December 14 by 50/75 bp. at 76%/24%, and also takes into account the increase in prices to a peak level of 5.1% by June 2023, he added.

In the short term, it is possible to maintain current levels or a slight increase in the trend of the “Christmas” rally in global markets, admits Mr. Mironyuk.

Market participants estimate the rise of the index until the end of the year to the values ​​of 2400-2500 points.

At the same time, Ms. Malykh clarifies that this will happen if there is no strong deterioration in the news background. Natalya Milchakova believes that this will happen if prices for raw materials remain high.

Ksenia Kulikova