The main drivers of insurance market growth will be auto insurance and property insurance

In the medium term, the insurance market may double in growth. The main drivers will be auto insurance and property insurance. This will be facilitated by the development of boxed products, increased car sales, as well as increased demand due to the increased risk of damage. The outsiders will be insurance against accidents and illnesses. According to experts, lower growth rates here will be associated with a slowdown in lending, as well as the fixed cost of related policies.

The volume of the insurance market by 2027 will almost double compared to the results of 2022 and will exceed 3 trillion rubles, as follows from the Kept review (Kommersant got acquainted with it). At the same time, the non-life insurance segment will show a growth rate of 8% and reach a volume of 1.95 trillion rubles.

According to the study, one of the reasons for the growth will be the client-centric policy of the Central Bank and changes in regulation. Thus, further reform of MTPL tariffs and the introduction of the IFRS 17 standard will push insurance companies to develop more attractive and valuable products, and will also increase consumer confidence, experts say. In particular, IFRS 17 establishes more stringent requirements for the recognition of profits and losses, and also regulates the requirement to recognize revenue in accordance with the volume of services provided during the period. In addition, the development of online sales, ecosystems and automation, robotization of operational processes will also contribute to the growth of premiums, the study notes.

Car insurance premiums will increase at a rapid pace (10% on average per year). According to Kept analysts, this will happen both due to strengthening control over the availability of compulsory motor liability insurance policies, the development of packaged products and policies with low prices and coverage, and against the backdrop of growing car sales. Thus, by 2027, the passenger car fleet may exceed 47 million, and sales will reach 1.5 million per year. According to the general director of the insurance consultant AST, Innokenty Lukyanov, the inflationary component is also strong in the growth of car insurance – this year the increase in compulsory motor liability insurance fees was largely due to an increase in the average premium.

The property insurance segment will also show high growth rates (9%). Kept experts indicate among the reasons for the growth an increase in demand for insurance of houses and apartments due to an increase in the risk of damage, the development of home insurance as a consequence of the adoption of the law on home insurance against emergencies. This year, insurance companies have already begun selling insurance policies against the fall of combat drones and UAVs (see “Kommersant” dated October 31).

The segments that will lag behind will be the voluntary health insurance (VHI) and travel insurance (TZI) segments, as well as insurance against accidents and illnesses. Their average annual growth is estimated at 7%. VHI and VZR will show an increase in fees due to rising tariffs and higher prices for medical services and the development of the product line, including boxed options for SMEs. This year, the demand for boxed voluntary health insurance has increased many times (see Kommersant, October 2). The growth of VZR, according to Mr. Lukyanov, will ensure not so much an increase in the number of people traveling abroad (most of those wishing to relocate have already left), but rather a significantly increased exchange rate. The dollar exchange rate is currently slightly above the level of 90 rubles/$, whereas a year ago it was about 60 rubles/$.

Analysts associate the dynamics of accident and illness insurance with the development of lending. According to the head of the personal insurance department at Nobilis, Mikhail Kunin, due to the increase in the key rate, we can expect a slowdown in the growth of the segment by about a third. At the same time, the cost of such policies is low, notes Mr. Lukyanov. It does not depend on the pricing of providers or on medical inflation – this is a fixed price of the policy, depending only on the age of the insured, therefore, in monetary terms, this type of insurance will grow more modestly than others, the expert notes.

Yulia Poslavskaya