The leader in mortgage state programs has changed

In the past few weeks, the leader among programs has changed on the Russian market of preferential mortgages. After a long lead in family mortgages, sales of concessional loans for new buildings have exceeded the levels of the first program. However, experts doubt that this situation will continue.

Weekly statistics of the operator of preferential programs “Dom.RF” on issuance shows that for the last three weeks (from July 6 to July 20), banks have issued more loans under the preferential program at 8% per annum than for family mortgages. Until now, during the year, family mortgages have consistently led the way in terms of the number of loans issued. The excess is still small: from 37 to 537 loans per week. But participants in the banking market expected that family mortgages would, on the contrary, increase their share in loans (see “Kommersant” dated July 13).

The rates for the programs did not change en masse, but they were corrected by the market leaders. Thus, in July, Sberbank reduced the rate on preferential and family programs by 0.3 percentage points (p.p.), to 7.4% and 5.4%, respectively (the offer is valid until August 31). Following him, VTB also took a similar step – by 0.4-0.7 percentage points, up to 7.3-5.3% (until September 15).

Sberbank confirmed to Kommersant that the state support program again took first place among preferential programs, its share in May-June increased to almost 18%. “This was the result of the activation of borrowers in the IZHS market, where most of the loans fall on this program,” the bank said.

In addition to people’s interest in private homes, a timely large-scale legislative reform also played a role in increasing demand, according to Sberbank.

For example, the effect of preferential programs was expanded, the conditions for issuing mortgages were softened, and it became possible to choose how to build a house – with a contractor or on your own.

The first half of 2023 was notable for a significant strengthening of demand for family mortgages: from January to June, the number of loans issued under this program tripled, and its share in the total number of loans increased from 11% to 16–17%, Sberbank notes. VTB says that in July, about every fourth mortgage is issued under the family program, and every fifth is issued at a preferential rate for new buildings.

Meanwhile, the chief expert of “Rusipoteka” Sergey Gordeiko believes that the trend will not take hold, as a result, the family mortgage will retain its leadership. In his opinion, marketing campaigns of credit organizations could have affected the statistics: “Recently, banks have tuned in to squeeze out preferential mortgages, since they understand that there will be no new limits this year.” The increase in demand for the state program is explained by expectations of higher rates and the desire of borrowers to fix more favorable conditions, admits Dmitry Monastyrshin, chief analyst at PSB.

In mid-July, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Marat Khusnullin announced that the limit of funds from the budget for subsidizing the rate on preferential mortgages for new buildings could end in 2023, but there are no plans to stop the program. The growth in the issuance of a standard preferential mortgage may be due to an emotional reaction to the statements of the authorities, says Ruslan Syrtsov, managing director of Metrium. According to his forecasts, such loans will remain on the market until July 1, 2024, as the government announced, the limits “are sure to be found.”

At the same time, adds Mr. Syrtsov, some Russians who plan to use family mortgages are now postponing the purchase, counting on a beneficial modification of the program. However, given the growth of market rates, such changes are unlikely in the short term, the expert warns. Usually, Vladimir Shchekin, the founder of Rodina Group, clarifies, it takes from several weeks to two or three months to make a decision and obtain a loan from buyers, and “no external factors affect this.”

Olga Sherunkova, Daria Andrianova