The leader has changed in the ranking of the largest grain exporters

The leader in the ranking of the largest grain exporters has changed. According to the results of the first half of the season, the top line in shipments with 6.3 million tons was taken by Green Gates, headed by a former top manager of Demetra-Holding, while the results of the Reef Trade House, which dropped to second place, were affected by unfavorable weather in the port of Kavkaz . The profitability of grain exports remains high, and in the second half of the season, analysts expect strengthening of world wheat prices.

The largest exporter of grain from Russia for the first half of the season (July-December 2023) was the Grain Gates company, ahead of the former leader TH Rif. This follows from data provided to Kommersant by a market participant. According to these estimates, as of the last week of December, Green Gates exported more than 6.1 million tons of grain, Trade House Reef – over 5.7 million tons, and Aston, in third place, more than 2.7 million tons. The fourth place is occupied by MZK Export (about 1.5 million tons), a former division of the global trader Viterra, which was transferred to local management. In fifth place is the United Grain Company (UZK, 50% plus 1 share owned by the state) with 1.3 million tons.

Green Gates was established in June 2022. The general director and owner of 2% of the company is Ilya Aliev, a former top manager of Demetra-Holding, whose assets include the Novorossiysk grain terminal, a share in the Novorossiysk bakery plant, and the grain carrier Rusagrotrans by rail. Previously, 45% of Demetra-Holding was owned by VTB. But after the introduction of US sanctions against the bank in 2022, the holding’s structures encountered difficulties with grain exports, sources told Kommersant. In the summer of 2023, the head of VTB, Andrei Kostin, announced that the bank had left this business. According to Vedomosti, the structure of the investment state fund of Oman may become a co-owner of Demetra-Holding. Demetra-Holding previously called Grain Gates one of its partners in the development of grain exports.

Grain Gates told Kommersant that according to the results of the first half of the season, 6.3 million tons of grain were exported compared to 7.95 million tons for the entire last season. “This is a good result for us,” said a company representative. The Reef Trade House said that unfavorable weather conditions since November 2023 have caused delays in fleet movement and export shipments, but the company is systematically increasing the volume of exported products. A Kommersant source confirmed that shipments at the port of Kavkaz, where the Reef Trade House operates, were affected by the deterioration of the weather since November last year.

Kommersant’s market interlocutors predicted that Green Gates could outstrip the Reef trading house in terms of export volumes due to a large share of supplies through the Black Sea terminals and after the reduction of work of global traders in the Russian Federation (see Kommersant dated June 2, 2023 ). Thus, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus stopped grain exports from Russia from July 2023. General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko points out that the Reef Trade House increased exports year-on-year this season, but in comparison with the doubling of shipments through the Black Sea terminals, this was not enough for Green Gates. According to him, judging by the volume of purchases for future deliveries, Grain Gates can maintain first place among grain exporters at the end of the entire season.

Aston did not provide a comment. Managing Director of MZK Export Nikolai Demyanov did not answer Kommersant’s questions. The UGC stated that it maintains its place in the top five largest grain exporters, including by building direct interaction with importers from friendly countries.

As noted in the ICAR review, the profitability of grain exports this season remains high, although business is complicated by weather risks, associated fines for vessel demurrage in ports, geopolitics, difficult predictability of export duties, etc. General Director of Prozerno Vladimir Petrichenko points out, that the first half of the season was characterized by stagnation and a decrease in the cost of wheat, but in the second half the activity of the main importers should increase, which, given the reduction in grain reserves, could have a positive effect on prices.

Rusagrotrans analysts estimate the entire export of grain from the Russian Federation, taking into account the EAEU countries, in the first half of the season at a record 36 million tons, including 27.3 million tons of wheat. They note that in addition to the traditional Turkey, Egypt, Iran and Algeria, Bangladesh entered the top five major importers of Russian wheat with 1.9 million tons.

Anatoly Kostyrev