The Kazan aircraft plant will not have time to build the three promised Tu-214s in 2023

According to Kommersant, Rostec will have time to complete and deliver in 2023 a maximum of one Tu-214 aircraft out of three planned. The aircraft will not be used for commercial transportation. Rostec intends to begin testing a version of the aircraft with a cabin for two crew members in 2026, which Aeroflot insisted on. But, Kommersant’s interlocutors in the aviation industry note, there are no firm contracts for the aircraft with passenger airlines, and they doubt that the project, which clearly competes with the MC-21, will be produced in the planned volumes.

As Kommersant learned, the Kazan Aviation Plant (part of Rostec) will complete construction and deliver one Tu-214 by the end of the year. The plane will go to a special customer. According to one of Kommersant’s sources, this is SLO “Russia”, another – the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Actual operation, according to him, will begin no earlier than 2024. According to one version, the aircraft is at the final assembly stage; according to another, it is in the process of technical acceptance.

According to the comprehensive development program for the aviation industry until 2030, Rostec was supposed to deliver three Tu-214s this year. The recipients were not named. According to Kommersant’s interlocutor in the industry, there are no firm contracts for this airliner today, although UVT Aero and Aeroflot were mentioned among the customers. At the same time, another source believes that Aeroflot “will wait for deliveries of the Tu-214 with a cabin for two crew members.” Aeroflot CEO Sergei Aleksandrovsky has repeatedly said that the carrier is interested in precisely this modification, and not the current one, which also includes a flight engineer. Kommersant sent a request to the carrier.

On December 11, Rostec announced the start of development of the Tu-214 for a crew of two, expecting to begin testing in 2026. Rostec did not say how long such tests could last. The first Tu-214 aircraft will begin to arrive to customers in the version with three crew members – “this is a promising development, the serial production of which will take time,” Kommersant was told at the state corporation. Rostec noted that the delivery of several dozen aircraft is planned until 2026 (30 aircraft until 2026 inclusive, according to the aviation strategy). “There are no plans to abandon a car with two pilots and a flight engineer. Such aircraft will be in demand among special customers,” the corporation added.

In the fall, Kommersant became aware of two other postponements in the aviation industry 2030 program: two SJs for 2024 (see Kommersant of November 13) and Il-112 for the end of 2025 (see Kommersant of September 19). But, as a number of Kommersant’s interlocutors note, the delay of the Tu-214 differs from the SJ, “which customers will wait for in any case.” The idea of ​​launching mass production of the already existing Tu-214 was accepted in the “first sanctioned spring of 2022” as a “quick victory”, and the Kazan aircraft will help “supplement and make up for the MS deficit in the first years.” But if the Tu-214 program stalls, there will be no urgent need for it, given that from 2027, MS-21 production should increase to 36 units per year, and then to 50 and 72 units in 2029-2030. While the maximum production rate of Tu-214 is 12 cars per year from 2026.

The machine may be in demand “only if Red Wings cannot abandon the idea of ​​operation, being a Rostec company, and large commercial carriers will get stuck on the MS-21 waiting list after Aeroflot,” believes Kommersant’s source in the aviation industry. In addition, the aircraft has obvious disadvantages compared to the MC-21, most notably low fuel efficiency, which caused the Red Wings to refuse to fly the Tu in 2019. The aircraft is not mass-produced, which is why “each aircraft had an individual map of failures and modifications, which significantly complicated its operation,” adds Kommersant’s source. Finally, the Tu-214 cannot compete with the MS-21 in flight range, Kommersant’s interlocutors indicate. According to the manufacturer, the flight range of the Tu-214 at maximum payload is 3.8 thousand km versus the maximum range of the MS-21 of up to 5.1 thousand km. However, the actual range, at least in the first years of operation, Kommersant’s interlocutors believe, will be significantly lower.

To avoid a competitive confrontation between two projects within the UAC, it would make sense to increase the flight range of the Tu-214, says Fedor Borisov, an expert at the Institute of Transport Economics and Transport Policy at the Higher School of Economics. The possibility of a non-stop flight across the country could help boost demand for the Tu-214, akin to the LR modification of Western aircraft, he adds. “It probably won’t be the most widely produced aircraft, but it is also in demand for national security and defense purposes, given its independence from imports,” he concludes.

The expert considers it advisable to integrate the Tu-214 program into the Yakovlev line-up, so that a single manufacturer would coordinate its two products without duplication. “Then UZGA would be responsible for regional local turboprop aircraft, and Yakovlev would deal with mainline airliners, focusing on the issues of ordering components, distributing competencies and identifying customers,” concludes Mr. Borisov.

Aigul Abdullina