The insurance market has overtaken OSAGO – Newspaper Kommersant No. 237 (7438) dated 12/21/2022

After this year’s expected correction in 2023, the insurance market may show strong growth. Experts believe that it will be mainly provided by credit insurance, as well as OSAGO and non-credit life insurance, which seriously sank in 2022. At the same time, voluntary types of insurance – VHI and Casco, according to experts, will have a negative impact on the market dynamics.

In 2023, the insurance market will show growth by 12% and exceed RUB 2 trillion for the first time, according to ACRA estimates. Market drivers will be credit insurance, which is expected to grow by 36%, and non-credit life insurance, which will increase fees by 14%. At the same time, auto insurance will become an outsider, which will slow down the growth rate in voluntary types to 3%, and in mandatory types it will show zero dynamics. Thus, it follows from the study that the growth of credit insurance should be expected following the growth of loans to individuals (by 13–18% by the end of 2023). The restoration of non-credit life insurance, according to ACRA experts, will ensure a gradual normalization of interest rates.

Some experts agree with the forecasts. According to Ivan Chubar, director of strategic analysis at Rosgosstrakh Life, the most active growth in credit life insurance is expected due to the low base effect and recovery in the retail lending market, as well as endowment life insurance (CLL), since insurers focused on this segment after changes in regulation and problems with investment infrastructure for ILI. Tatyana Samsonova, partner of the B1 group of companies, believes that in the conditions of turbulence in the stock markets, investment and equity life insurance products may show growth due to their potential increased profitability due to entering strategies during a period of low prices.

However, other experts are more conservative. Absolut Insurance expects growth to 5%. Soglasie expects that the volume of the insurance market in 2023 will return to last year’s figures – 1.8 trillion rubles. Tatyana Nikitina, senior director of ratings for financial companies at NRA, believes that in the event of a negative scenario with a protracted conflict, a recession in the economy and a reduction in investment, the market may show near-zero or slightly negative dynamics up to 4-6%.

In addition to credit insurance, among the market drivers, experts primarily see agricultural insurance (15%) and OSAGO (up to 12%). Evgenia Vasilyeva, director of the Ingosstrakh Center for Strategic Analysis, explains that the growth in OSAGO is also due to the expansion of the tariff corridor and the general more prudent approach of consumers to their own property. Viktor Krivosheev, First Deputy General Director of Absolut Insurance, believes that the agricultural risk insurance market will grow by at least 10-15% under the influence of stimulating state programs.

Experts include casco and VHI as restraining types of insurance. Voluntary auto insurance will be affected by several negative factors at once – a reduction in the supply of new cars on the market, a decrease in real disposable incomes of the population, a change in consumer behavioral habits, and others, together this can lead to a decrease in the segment by up to 5%, Ms. Vasilyeva estimates.

In VHI, according to Mr. Krivosheev, one should not expect growth either, since the outgoing foreign companies considered such policies an obligatory part of the social package of their employees, and they bought rather expensive programs. At the same time, the Russian owners coming to replace the foreign ones either refuse VMI or reduce the cost of medical programs. Shrinking, the expert believes, and effective demand for such programs on the part of individuals.

Julia Poslavskaya