The housing market for November 2023

After the autumn rush in the long-term housing rental market, a period of stability began: the pronounced increase in rates in the largest regional markets stopped. Although at the achieved levels, prices continue to maintain high expectations of owners. Despite the general slowdown in activity, the influx of new tenants into the market will be stable due to people who have decided to postpone the purchase of housing due to high loan rates. But consultants do not yet predict a noticeable increase in prices.

The average cost of long-term rental apartments in the 18 largest regional markets in Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) at the end of November amounted to 27.1 thousand rubles. per month, increasing by 1% in 30 days. Two-room apartments – decreased by 2%, to 39.5 thousand rubles. Such calculations are cited in CIAN.Analytics, speaking about a gradual cessation of rate growth. Signs of cooling are also seen in Yandex Real Estate: the dynamics in the largest of the markets under consideration turned out to be almost zero. Etazhi recorded an increase in the average cost of one-room and two-room apartments in cities with a population of over a million by 2.5% per month, to 24.5 thousand rubles. and 29.7 thousand rubles. respectively.

In Krasnoyarsk, Chelyabinsk and Perm average rental price of one-room apartments over the last 30 days grew by 4%. Average rates are 26.4 thousand, 22 thousand and 21.1 thousand rubles. per month accordingly. “Etazhi” notes an increase of 3.7% in Kazan, up to 25.4 thousand rubles. per month. Simultaneously in Voronezhaccording to CIAN.Analytics, the average rental rate decreased by 8%, up to 20.5 thousand rubles. per month for a one-room apartment. In St. Petersburg the decrease was 1%, to 34.9 thousand rubles.

In Moscow, according to CIAN.Analytics, the average cost of renting one-room apartments at the end of November was 55 thousand rubles, two-room apartments – 99.2 thousand rubles. Over 30 days, the first indicator did not change, the second decreased by 4%. Oksana Polyakova, deputy director of the rental department of the Inkom-Real Estate company, says that there are no discounts on the Moscow mass market now: it managed to calm down a little after the wave of excitement – demand decreased by 7% over the month, but the shortage of budget offers remains. The demand for rental premium housing in Moscow, the head of the rental department of Apple Real Estate, Vladimir Rodionov, calls it stable. The exposition, according to him, continues to decline: “many are renewing current contracts, and the lots are not coming to market.”

The head of CIAN.Analytics, Alexey Popov, says that over the past 30 days, the total supply of rental apartments in the 18 largest markets has increased by 13%, while in the previous month the growth was symbolic – 2%. “Lots at reasonable rates have begun to be put on display again,” he states, attributing the trend, among other things, to seasonality. Olga Pavlinova, director of the Etazhei rental department, says that requests for the month have decreased by 5–10%. Average prices, according to the expert, are partly kept high by a psychological factor: seeing demand and a reduction in the number of budget options, owners continue to raise the cost of their properties. This leads to the fact that the rates for some properties, according to the expert, are too high and diverge by 10–15% from the price expectations of tenants.

By the end of the year, tenant activity, according to Ms. Pavlinova, will decrease by another 10%, and some owners will resort to increasing discounts.

But Mr. Popov expects that in the future the influx of new tenants will be stable. “Those who wanted to solve their housing problem, but are not ready to take out a loan at 16% per annum, can only enter the rental market, where for an apartment in a recently completed new building they will have to pay almost half as much as for servicing a mortgage,” he argues . Against this background, the expert does not rule out an increase in rental rates after the New Year holidays.

Although Olga Pavlinova believes that average rates have nevertheless reached their ceiling and will be fixed at current levels, at least for the next couple of months. “Over the long term, rental costs are directly related to the period of high mortgage rates and market transformation,” she says. Oksana Polyakova also predicts stabilization, counting on prices remaining at the same level. “In December, the volume of supply will increase slightly due to owners who decide to rent out properties before the New Year, but this is unlikely to significantly reduce the average rental price,” says the expert. Vladimir Rodionov does not rule out a ten percent increase in prices for premium rental apartments in the first half of the year.

Alexandra Mertsalova