The heat wave “probably” at the origin of more than 11,000 additional deaths in France this summer

Each new heatwave episode revives in France the memory of the particularly deadly heatwave of 2003 and prompts one to wonder how many people die because of the heat. In essence, it is the ability of our societies to adapt to global warming that is in question. And, as with Covid-19, the number of deaths that citizens are ready to accept or not.

Decryption: Heat wave: view the absolute temperature records exceeded in France in June and July

In 2022, more than 11,000 additional people died between 1^er June and August 22, compared to the same period in 2019 – the last year without a Covid-19 epidemic. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), which draws up this assessment in a report published on Friday, September 2is careful not to give the precise causes of these deaths but cautiously advances that these figures “explains[nt] probably by the heat wave that occurred in mid-July, after a first episode of heat wave in mid-June”.

In support of this hypothesis, the three mortality peaks that punctuated the summer correspond to the three successive heat waves. “The chronicle of deaths from all causes suggests a first peak in deaths around June 19 [puis] a very clear peak on July 19”, specifies INSEE, to which a peak seems to be added around August 4 and another still around August 11-13. At the same time, according to the bulletins from Public Health France devoted to monitoring the heat wave, the first episode, unprecedented in its precocity and intensity, lasted from June 15 to 22; the second from July 12 to 25, with use of more intense emergency care from July 15 to 18. Finally, the third wave began on July 31 and ended around mid-August.

13% increase in July

“It’s impressive, these all-cause mortality figures are very high”, comments Sylvie Le Minez, head of the demographic and social studies unit at INSEE. In July, the excess mortality amounted to a total of more than 6,000 people, with an average of 1,750 deaths per day, an increase of 13% compared to the same month of July three years earlier. The difference is a little less marked in June, which recorded around 1,700 additional deaths, an increase of 4% compared to 2019.

The August data are more questionable because they are still provisional. “From the second week of August, the figures are very clearly underestimated; the reports are still incomplete with regard to the most recent data and, at this time of year, they may have been slower; moreover, some town halls transmit their data by paper and there is a delay in entering the figures”, explains Sylvie Le Minez. The data should be consolidated by the end of September.

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