The growth of tourist traffic has increased the regional risks of OSAGO

The regions popular among tourists have increased the levels of regional risks in the OSAGO segment. According to experts, this is due to the growth of car traffic, primarily in the southern regions of the country, where many airports remain closed for the second year. This situation increases the costs of insurance companies in the OSAGO segment. At the same time, experts do not expect a reduction in the presence of insurers in these regions, including through the use of resources from the OSAGO reinsurance pool.

According to the results of the second quarter of 2023, the Southern Federal District (SFD) and the Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) worsened their positions in the regional risk segment, follows from the monitoring data of the Central Bank on OSAGO. Thus, the Southern Federal District with a score of 2.5 points moved from the “green” to the “yellow” risk zone. In particular, the Rostov region and the Crimea are among the “yellow” regions. The FEFD received four points and moved from the “yellow” to the “red” risk zone.

The Central Bank conducts quarterly monitoring of the risks of fraud in the OSAGO market in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In the course of monitoring, risk profiling of the subjects of Russia is carried out. As the main indicators, the Bank of Russia considers the frequency of insured events, the average payout and the sliding payout ratio, says B1 partner Olga Vostrikova. Thus, the “green” zone corresponds to a score from 0 to 1 point, the “yellow” zone – from 1.01 to 3.99 points, the “red” zone corresponds to indicators of 4-7 points. The division of regions by color is based on an assessment of the risks of fraud in OSAGO, that is, it shows the level of fraud, auto-substitution in certain regions, adds Alexei Yanin, managing director for ratings of insurance and investment companies Expert RA.

According to experts, the deterioration in the situation of the regions is associated with an increase in traffic, in particular due to tourists.

The noted growth of these indicators, which influenced the overall risk assessment in the regions, may be associated both with an increase in cases of unfair practices in terms of overestimating the amount of damage or falsifying the circumstances of an accident, and with the general traffic situation caused by a significant increase in traffic through the relevant regions, Ms. Vostrikova explains . Along with the growth of traffic due to tourists and drivers in general, the number of accidents is growing, the interlocutor of Kommersant adds in the insurance market.

Interest in car tourism began to grow several years ago, said Sergey Romashkin, general director of the Dolphin tour operator. In the market, according to him, this was associated with an increase in the share of the middle class, a growing level of requests for recreation and the low development of car rental services in Russia. In 2022-2023, this trend, according to Mr. Romashkin, was superimposed on the closure of airports in the southern regions of the country, due to which the M-4 Don highway received several million additional cars. According to him, against this background, the share of tourists in the Krasnodar Territory increased from 20-25% to 30-35%, in the Crimea – from 60% to 80%.

The presence of the southern regions of the country in the “red” and “yellow” zones according to OSAGO is logical, the founder of GTK Holding, Said Zaliev, also believes. In the regions, many airports are now not functioning – in Voronezh, Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar, Anapa, Gelendzhik, Simferopol. Moreover, a number of them belong to million-plus cities (Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar, Voronezh). Crimea also takes on a large passenger flow, regardless of the time of year, he notes. According to Rosstat, over 633 thousand people lived in hotels in the Rostov region for seven months, an increase of 44% compared to the same period last year. During this period, 1.16 million people were accommodated in Crimean hotels (an increase of 2%). In the Far Eastern Federal District, over the same period, the occupancy increased by 35%, to 2.1 million people.

In general, insurers are trying to reduce their presence in the “red” and increase it in the “green” regions, notes Alexei Yanin. However, a significant reduction in the presence of large insurers in these regions is unlikely due to their small share in the total portfolio, Ms. Vostrikova believes. In addition, companies still have the opportunity to redistribute unprofitability through the functioning of the CMTPL reinsurance pool mechanism, she notes. Also, to balance the situation, some regions essentially overpay for others, explains the director for ratings of insurance companies of the NKR agency Yegor Lopatin. According to him, over the past five years, residents of some regions overpaid about 58 billion rubles for others.

Julia Poslavskaya, Alexandra Mertsalova