The growth of the pay TV market at the end of 2023 has stopped
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According to industry participants, the growth of the pay TV market ended last year, amounting to 106 billion rubles. This was facilitated by the development of interactive television and online cinemas; potential new subscribers could also be scared off by interference in the broadcast of TV channels in June-July 2023, analysts say. Next year, the pay TV market will decline, as will the number of connected households, market participants predict.
Tricolor’s data is confirmed by TelecomDaily and TMT Consulting. TelecomDaily CEO Denis Kuskov clarified that the only point of development of pay TV is still the interactive segment (subscribers can interact with TV, changing the type of image shown), but only in the regions. Otherwise, the paid segment significantly suppresses non-linear television (the viewer independently chooses the content and time of access to it). According to Mr. Kuskov, the category’s growth annually is about 35–40%.
The volume of the pay TV market, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 106 billion rubles, says Elena Krylova, project director at TMT Consulting. At the same time, back in 2022, the agency predicted the year’s results at the level of 109 billion rubles. (see “Kommersant” dated May 26, 2022). The average bill per subscriber (ARPU) at the end of 2023 was 191 rubles, Ms. Krylova clarifies. There are two reasons for the segment’s growth to stop, she says: “the continuing decline in the cable TV market, when more and more subscribers are switching off from analogue viewing, replacing it with free-to-air broadcasting, and interference in satellite TV in June-July 2023.” The latter, Elena Krylova points out, led to an outflow of subscribers: they preferred subscriptions to online cinemas, which also offer digital television in their packages.
Russian satellite television operators reported RBC about attacks in August 2023. According to them, the interference came from a “neighboring state” and led to disruptions in the broadcasting of popular channels. Last November, the company announced the launch of Tricolor Ultra, a project protected from external broadcast interference, on the Russian Express-AT1 satellite.
After the pandemic, 2023 was another blow for pay TV operators in Russia. This was facilitated by the departure of foreign channels, including MTV, Nickelodeon, Discovery and a number of others, as well as a decrease in the solvency of subscribers (see “Kommersant” dated May 26, 2022). In addition, the forecasts of operators counting on audience growth against the backdrop of a reduction in online cinema libraries did not materialize, market participants interviewed by Kommersant indicate: streaming services have increased their purchases of Eastern content and the production of their own original projects.
Costs for renting satellite capacities and upgrading equipment also continue to rise. Tricolor added that they expectedly increased along with the exchange rate, which “has almost doubled since 2022.” But the company insists that it maintains leadership in the market, and is also developing additional services and a line of consumer devices under its own brand. At the end of 2023, the operator’s subscriber base grew by 0.25%, to 12.3 million households.
Kommersant’s interlocutors in the media market suggest that by the end of next year there will be a reduction in both the volume of the pay TV market and connected households, in particular due to the fact that online cinemas offer digital TV as a subscription, and citizens are now trying to save .
The growth of the pay television market at the end of 2023 has ended, its largest participant Tricolor told Kommersant. The number of subscribers for all satellite television operators, the company estimates, overall decreased by 0.1% during the period. NTV Plus and Orion TV (which manages Telekarta) did not respond to Kommersant’s request; MTS declined to comment.
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