The growth of profitability of deposits ends – Gazeta Kommersant No. 212 (7413) dated 11/16/2022

The Central Bank notes the growth of maximum rates on deposits, despite the fact that the outflow of funds from individuals associated with the announced mobilization has stopped. However, experts believe that the increase in rates on deposits will not be long-term, and at the end of the year it will be possible to see only promotional offers at higher rates, more of an image than aimed at real attraction of liquidity. Given the low demand for loans, now banks do not need expensive funds from citizens. At the same time, customers themselves prefer more flexible savings accounts.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Russia reported that the average maximum rate on ruble deposits of the ten largest banks by volume of deposits rose to 6.9% in the first half of November from 6.8% at the end of October. The progressive growth of rates has been going on since the third decade of September, when partial mobilization was announced in Russia, which increased the level of risks and uncertainty in the economy. Banks raised deposit rates in response to the flow of funds from the population from deposits into cash rubles, the regulator reported. At the same time, according to the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, the situation with the outflow of cash from Russian banks returned to the seasonal norm, and in October the outflow decreased to 100 billion rubles. from 500 billion rubles. in September.

At the same time, despite the fact that in October the Central Bank left the key rate unchanged (7.5%), according to VTB experts, banks in October-November held a round of increasing the yield on ruble deposits. “As a result, in a month and a half, the average rates on term deposits in large banks rose to 7.2% per annum – by 0.5 percentage points,” they said. At the same time, the average yield on savings accounts decreased, as a result, the difference between the average rates on deposits and savings accounts doubled and reached 2.1 percentage points. According to Frank RG, which take into account the rates of 60 large banks as of November 10, the rates on savings accounts amounted to 4.35%, and on deposits 6.69%, while as of March 31 – 8.64%, against 12 .47%, respectively. Such dynamics is explained by the fact that after the announcement of a special military operation at the end of February this year, citizens sought greater mobility and preferred savings accounts to deposits, banks, on the contrary, tried to keep deposits. After the announcement of mobilization in September, the situation repeated itself.

But at the moment, the situation is returning to the trend of the beginning of the year, when funds from closing deposits are placed on current / savings accounts or are issued for deposits for a period of more than six months, confirms the deputy leader of the Savings and Investments tribe of Otkritie Bank, Maria Saenko. Now people are more likely to open savings accounts, waiting for the transition of the key rate to growth and wanting to be able to manage savings more flexibly, indicate in Promsvyazbank. At the moment, there is a redistribution of funds from deposits, which were opened in March mainly to savings accounts.

At the same time, experts do not expect an increase in deposit rates. Against the backdrop of declining demand for loans, it makes no sense for banks to overpay for liquidity. According to Nadezhda Karavaeva, junior director for banking ratings at Expert RA, further dynamics of household funds in banks and deposit rates will depend on the mood of depositors in the context of negative expectations in the economic and political sphere.

“We do not see any prospects for a significant increase in the funds of individuals before the end of this year,” says Valery Piven, Senior Director, Head of the Financial Institutions Ratings Group at ACRA. He expects an increase in consumer activity on the eve of the New Year and a continuation of the trend towards the outflow of money abroad. A slight increase in deposit rates on the eve of the New Year is likely within the framework of traditional promotional offers, admits Yegor Lopatin, Deputy Director of the Group of Ratings of Financial Institutions of the NKR Agency.

“We do not expect a significant increase in rates, most likely, deposit rates will be in the region of current values, there may be slight deviations when banks conduct individual promotional offers to regulate GAP positions for certain periods,” concludes the analyst of bank ratings of the National Rating Agency Natalia Bogomolova.

Ksenia Dementieva