The government will take 90% of Gazprom’s revenue by increasing the mineral extraction tax on gas

By increasing the mineral extraction tax on gas, the state will take from Gazprom 90% of the revenue that the company will receive as a result of the rapid growth of tariffs in 2024–2026. Through this tax, which is actually levied on consumers, the budget plans to receive about 110 billion rubles. in year. According to experts, rising prices for raw materials will have a negative impact on energy-intensive industries.

On October 13, the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes recommended adopting in the first reading a bill that would increase the mineral extraction tax on gas in Russia from August 1, 2024 to the end of 2026 in connection with the indexation of wholesale gas prices. Relevant amendments to the Tax Codewhich the government submitted to the State Duma at the end of September, will be considered on October 17.

As Deputy Head of the Ministry of Finance Alexey Sazanov said during a committee meeting, an increase in the tax burden will allow more than 90% of additional revenues from indexation of wholesale gas prices to be transferred to the state budget from Gazprom. Their department estimates an average of 120–130 billion rubles. per year, that is, the state will receive about 108–117 billion rubles.

The deputy minister explained that these funds will be used “in an absolutely deliberate targeted manner for specific needs,” refusing to provide details, since committee meeting was open.

The rapid growth of wholesale prices for both industry and the population is included in the forecast for the socio-economic development of Russia. From December 1, wholesale gas prices for industrial consumers, except for the electricity sector, will increase by 10%. In addition, from July 2024 they will be indexed for all categories by 11.2% instead of the originally planned 8%, and in 2025 – by 8.2% (previously it was supposed to be 8%). Prior to this, gas prices increased by 8.5% from December 1, 2022.

The document explains that an accelerated rise in prices is necessary “to generate income for gas producers necessary to cover the additional increase in the tax burden in 2024.” That is, in fact, the revenue of gas producers (not only Gazprom, but also independent ones) from the increase in tariffs will be withdrawn to the budget through an increase in the mineral extraction tax, which in this case is completely passed on to gas consumers.

Technically, the increase in the mineral extraction tax rate will occur due to an increase in the Kkg coefficient introduced in 2023. It precisely reflects the withdrawal of additional revenue from companies from the indexation of gas tariffs on the domestic market, including taking into account additional tariff adjustments in 2024–2025.

At the moment, its value is the same for both Gazprom and independent gas suppliers, and is 134. But from 2024, according to the draft budget, its differentiation is planned. So, for a state monopoly in the first half of the year it will be at the level of 303, and for independent ones – 555, and from the second half of the year these figures will increase to 454 and 706, respectively. By 2026 they will reach 464 and 863, respectively. Thus, there will be an increase in the tax burden for independent producers.

Back on September 25 Alexey Sazanov assuredthat the Ministry of Finance does not plan new additions to the mineral extraction tax for Gazprom, after this tax was increased one-time in the fall of 2022 by a total of 1.8 trillion rubles. for the period from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2025 (that is, 50 billion rubles monthly).

According to the investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company Sergei Suverov, an increase in Gazprom tariffs by 11.2% in 2024 will become a serious pro-inflationary factor, as it will increase the costs of energy-intensive industries, such as the chemical industry and the production of mineral fertilizers.

But, he believes, indexation does not seem too radical to have far-reaching consequences for the economy. In the context of a decline in Gazprom’s export revenue, an increase in the mineral extraction tax may have a negative impact on plans for investments and dividends, the expert says.

Based on Gazprom’s dividend policy, taking into account the net profit received for the first half of the year under IFRS of 296 billion rubles. payments to shareholders could be about 13 rubles. per share. But, as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the monopoly Viktor Zubkov told Interfax on October 11, it is too early to discuss the prospects for dividends. At the end of last year, Gazprom refused to pay dividends.

Olga Mordyushenko