The government is discussing limiting the number of exporters of gasoline to combat gray schemes for its export

Kommersant has learned that the government is discussing limiting the number of gasoline exporters to combat gray schemes for its export. We are talking about the export of volumes that were initially shipped to the domestic market and for which subsidies were paid in the form of a damper. It is assumed that a limited list of refineries that produce marketable gasoline will be formed, and only they will be allowed to export it. As a result, mini-refineries may be cut off from exports, but Kommersant’s sources note that agreeing on a list of exporters will not be easy and will take time.

The Ministry of Energy is discussing with the government a draft document on limiting the export of gasoline, several Kommersant sources familiar with such plans told Kommersant. It involves the introduction of a closed list of refineries that will be allowed to supply fuel for export. The measure is aimed at curbing the gray export of gasoline, which, according to regulators and market participants, is one of the reasons for the increase in wholesale prices in recent months. Two interlocutors of Kommersant claim that the Ministry of Energy has already sent the corresponding proposals to Deputy Prime Minister for Fuel and Energy Complex Alexander Novak. Mr. Novak, at a meeting with oil companies on June 30, instructed the FAS and the Ministry of Energy to work out measures to prevent gray exports, follows from the protocol (Kommersant has a copy).

The problem of so-called gray exports escalated last year. Due to the fall in wholesale fuel prices against the backdrop of sanctions and high prices abroad, it has become profitable for Russian exporters, including traders not formally affiliated with oil companies, to buy it on the domestic market and then send it for export. In this case, the exporter received fuel whose price was reduced by the amount of the damper. The deals turned out to be profitable even despite the fact that in this case the trader had to pay excise and VAT, which are not paid during normal exports.

The government tried to stop gray exports, but failed to do it completely. So, from 2023, the government introduced a protective duty of 20 thousand rubles. per ton for the export of gasoline and diesel fuel, for which a damper has already been paid. But, since it did not spread to refineries, a number of exporters continued to apply gray export schemes.

According to several interlocutors of Kommersant, we are talking primarily about medium-sized and mini-refineries that do not produce a marketable product – they should be the target of the ban.

“It is possible that AI-92 is bought, additives and additives are brought to the 95th or 100th gasoline and then exported,” one of Kommersant’s interlocutors notes. “Mini refineries or related companies remain the largest gray exporters. That is why it is important that the list of permitted gasoline exporters be as limited as possible, ”adds another Kommersant source. But he admits that “for one reason or another” this may not be fully realized. So far, the document is under discussion, and Kommersant’s interlocutors believe that they will have time to adopt it no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2023.

According to Kommersant’s sources, by cutting off gray volumes of exports, regulators can create conditions for closer control over supplies. However, there are no prerequisites for the introduction of formal export quotas now: recommendations on the volume of supplies will continue to be formulated at the weekly operational headquarters of the Ministry of Energy. Back in May, the head of the FAS, Maxim Shaskolsky, announced his readiness to support the restriction on gasoline exports. According to Kommersant, the export of high-octane gasoline since the beginning of the year is slightly less than 2.9 million tons, which is 42% more than a year ago.

Kommersant’s interlocutors estimate the volume of gray gasoline exports differently.

So, according to them, in May-June its volume could be at least 40-120 thousand tons. Gray exports were estimated at 0.2-0.7 thousand tons per day in January-April 2023, and in May – the first half of July it increased to 1.3-2 thousand tons per day, Mikhail Turukalov, an expert on the fuel market, estimates. He notes that if the indicated volume was purchased on the stock exchange, this contributed to the acceleration of prices, given that oil companies sell about 30,000 tons of gasoline on the stock exchange every day.

In addition to the problem of gray exports, wholesale prices are also significantly affected by other factors: scheduled repairs at refineries, the weakening of the ruble coupled with rising oil prices, as well as growing domestic demand. Last week, wholesale gasoline prices again updated price highs. So, on July 21, the cost of AI-92 and AI-95 increased by 0.81% and 1.44%, to about 64 thousand rubles. and 69.7 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively.

Dmitry Kozlov, Tatyana Dyatel